College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of championship game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Jan. 9, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Cover your eyes, Maurice Clarett, Chris Gamble and the rest of the 2002-2003 Ohio State Buckeyes.

For the last 20 years, those memorable Buckeyes held the record for the biggest national championship game upset in college football history for their 31-24 victory over Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. It’s a record that will fall if TCU defeats Georgia tonight at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles in the 2023 College Football Playoff championship game.

The Horned Frogs are a 12.5-point underdog to the Bulldogs; the Buckeyes closed an 11.5-point underdog to the Hurricanes two decades ago.

TCU actually sits at +13 at several sports books and looks more likely to close higher than lower. If they win the title, the Horned Frogs will go down as not only the biggest surprise college football champion ever but one of the biggest surprise champions in the history of sports.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had the Horned Frogs at as high as 1,000-to-1 to lift the trophy before the start of the season. The Ohio State team of 20 years ago, by comparison, was 19-to-1 according to sportsoddshistory.com.

It’s remarkable the Horned Frogs have gotten this far at all, but they’re surely not satisfied. Just like Talking Points isn’t satisfied despite a blisteringly hot bowl run that’s seen the column hit 10 straight plays.

The record picking every game for bowl season stands at 22-18-1 (10-2-1 on plays, 6-8 on leans and 6-8 on guesses) with the full-season tally now 375-326-10 (71-79-2 on plays, 146-114-7 on leans and 158-133-1 on guesses).

There’s one more play on a side to lock in, and one more play already pending. One of the first bets I made this season was on Georgia to win the national championship at 4-to-1. So for the second straight year, the final game offers a question: To hedge or not to hedge on the Bulldogs.

Read below to find out what I decided and how I handicap the game. I’ll throw in four propositions — to be included in the Sunday Sweats records — to go with the pick on the side.

College Football Playoff National Championship: TCU +12.5 vs. Georgia, over/under: 63.5.

Where does TCU have an advantage in this matchup?

Most might come up with what they feel is an easy answer — quarterback. The Horned Frog's Heisman Trophy runner-up, Max Duggan, is certainly perceived to be better than the Bulldogs’ Heisman Trophy fourth-place finisher, Stetson Bennett, but is that reality?

Bennett came into the season as the leader of the defending national champions. Duggan came into the season as a backup, having been beaten out in training camp by freshman Chandler Morris.

Morris got hurt in the first game to steer Duggan back into a job he held last year, but that’s ancient history by now. How did the two actually play?

Well, they profile similarly and they also produced similarly this season. Duggan has thrown for 8.9 yards per pass attempt; Bennett has thrown for 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

The next retort would that Bennett has more talent around him, and sure, but that’s kind of the point. Georgia should have TCU outclassed.

Maybe semifinal Michigan backers — a group I was not a part of — said the same thing. The Wolverines’ themselves had to eat their words after inferring that they would overpower then Horned Frogs.

But the Bulldogs are more capable of overpowering opponents, and they’re also a lot more athletic than the Wolverines. TCU’s team speed seemed to have a higher gear than Michigan’s. That’s not happening against Georgia, which has recruited at the highest level in the nation over the last four years under coach Kirby Smart.

But ironically, it’s not one of the five-star speedsters that may present the biggest matchup problem for the Horned Frogs but rather shifty and strong tight end Brock Bowers. The former four-star recruit out of Napa, Calif., is the Bulldogs’ leading receiver on the year and often focal point of the offense.

He made one of the biggest plays of the game against Ohio State in converting a late fourth down by inches but was otherwise relatively quiet with four catches for 64 yards. And Smart was not happy about it.

He’s publicly criticized Bennett for not playing within the offense and challenged his quarterback to do better in the championship game. Expect a much safer game plan from the Bulldogs in the title game centered on Bowers and senior running back Kenny McIntosh.

McIntosh oftentimes looks like the least explosive of the three primary Bulldog running backs along Daijun Edwards and Kenny Milton, but he’s the one Smart trusts the most.

It is worth noting that Georgia’s injury situation is much worse than TCU’s and extends into the skill positions. Both local product tight end Darnell Washington and top receiver Ladd McConkey are questionable to play.

TCU may have the single biggest injury though with running back Kendre Miller dealing with a sore knee. Miller and receiver Quentin Johnson have been far and away TCU’s best weapons.

And Georgia has the perfect player to throw at Johnston in first-round draft prospect cornerback Keele Ringo, who locked up last year’s national championship with a late interception returned for a touchdown. Stock is marginally down on Ringo after a couple rough outings in the Bulldogs’ last two games.

Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. mostly got the better of him on New Year’s Eve in Atlanta but Harrison might be the single best receiver in college football. Another player in that conversation, LSU’s Kayshon Boutte, found success against Ringo in the SEC Championship Game but the bulk of it wasn’t until the second half when the game was all but won.  

Johnston has been terrific, but he’s not on the level of Harrison or Boutte. There’s no reason to worry about Ringo, or even Georgia’s pass defense at large.

The sharpest book in Las Vegas, Circa Sports, opened the spread on this game Georgia -14 after the College Football Playoff semifinals. The market immediately weighed in and ruled that was too much, sending the number as low as -12.

But was it really too much? It’s difficult to find real edges for TCU over Georgia here.

Four straight College Football Playoff national championship games have been decided by more than two touchdowns, and all signs indicate a fifth is on the way tonight.

It could cost me, but I can’t as much as entertain the thought of hedging some of my Georgia future position with a TCU bet at anything less than +14.5.

Plays: Georgia -12.5 (Caesars/William Hill), Brock Bowers to score the first touchdown at +650 ($50 to win $325 at BetMGM), Kenny McIntosh to score a touchdown at -140 ($280 to win $200, Circa Sports), Kenny McIntosh over 58.5 rushing yards at -110 ($220 to win $200 at Circa Sports) and Quentin Johnston under 83.5 receiving yards at -115 ($230 to win $200 at BetMGM)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or