NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the East Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 15, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Updated Thursday, March 16, 2023 | 10:32 a.m.

The conspiracy theorists always come out after the NCAA Tournament selection show.

There’s a whole subculture of sports sleuths who seek to expose the selection committee for their crimes against basketball. The accusations are flying again this year, and a lot of them are concentrated in the East Region.

The bracket that will conclude at Madison Square Garden in two weeks looks like one of the weaker assembled in recent years based on power-rating numbers. The pared-down level of competition apparently, and to some, conveniently, works to the benefit of a trio of blueblood programs with seasons that fell short of expectations overall.

Place No. 5 seed Duke, No. 6 seed Kentucky or No. 7 seed Michigan State — three of the four programs that compete in the annual opening-seaon “Champions Classic” along with Kansas — in another region and their chances at reaching yet another Final Four plummet. But in the East, it’s easy to envision any of them breaking through.

All three could even sneak into the Sweet 16 before having to face each other.

The pessimism regarding the East stems from the top where some believed Purdue wasn’t worthy of nabbing the final No. 1 seed, thinking West Region No. 2 seed UCLA would have been a better choice. The Boilermakers are the least-picked No. 1 seed to make the Final Four in the millions of brackets submitted on ESPN with only 15.5% of entrants advancing them that far. The figure would almost surely be higher, and there would perhaps be less outcry about the seeding, if it wasn’t for Purdue’s history of March Madness disappointment.

The Boilermakers have bowed out of the NCAA Tournament via upset in four of their last five appearances including as a 13.5-point Sweet 16 favorite against St. Peter’s a year ago. This year’s Purdue team isn’t as well rounded as last year’s was but does have a more dominant presence in consensus National Player of the Year Zach Edey.

Similar to Purdue, the teams directly behind them in the East are rated as the worst No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the tournament according to the betting market. Both No. 2 seed Marquette and No. 3 seed Kansas State have come out of nowhere to put together exceptional campaigns, but questions remain about their overall talent level.

There were supposed to be far fewer holes on the rosters of Kentucky, Duke and Michigan State coming into the year. It might not have played out that way so far but the region they find themselves in offers a golden second chance.

Read below for picks and analysis on every round of 64 game in the East Region. This is part three of a four-part series, with the first two entries available here. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories and ranked in rough order of confidence. Numbers are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen sides. Check back later for another pick after the First Four game as well as handicaps of every game throughout the tournament.

No. 4 seed Tennessee -10.5 vs. No. 13 seed Louisiana Yes, the loss of point guard Zakai Zeigler is a big hit to Tennesse’s NCAA Tournament hopes. No, it doesn’t mean the Volunteers still aren’t capable of making a run. As great as Zeigler had played at his peak, he was also benched early in the season with Tennessee winning eight straight games in his absence. The Volunteers’ defense is still a force to be reckoned with, one that could render a sometimes-careless Ragin’ Cajuns team all out of sorts. Play: Tennessee -10.5.

No. 16 seed Texas Southern -2 vs. No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson The Knights are the worst defensive team in the nation from an efficiency-rating standpoint, and there is not a close second. That should be a problem against a Texas Southern side that’s looking for a First Four win for the third straight year after finding its groove late in the season. It’s always difficult to determine how to weigh recent results, but given how thoroughly the Tigers made over their roster this year with veteran transfers, it makes sense that results weren’t immediate. Play: Texas Southern -2.

No. 5 seed Duke -6.5 vs. No. 12 seed Oral Roberts A recency bias that seems more misguided on the surface belongs to the perception of Duke, which have won nine in a row to become a trendy Final Four sleeper. But the Blue Devils have been favored in all but one of those contests, and won three of them by fewer than two possessions. The Blue Devils’ youth — both on the roster and on the bench with coach Jon Scheyer — has contributed to their inconsistency all year. Oral Roberts, as strange as it may sound, is a more certain commodity. The Golden Eagles aren’t going to turn the ball over, are going to take smart shots and put forth as much effort as they can to make up for athletic deficiencies on defense. This would be a play if the spread reached the semi-key number of 7. Lean: Oral Roberts +6.5.

No. 3 seed Kansas State -8.5 vs. No. 14 seed Montana State The Bobcats’ best attribute might be drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line. That’s notable here because the Wildcats are light on depth and therefore can’t afford to get into foul trouble. Montana State is solid across virtually every statistical category with a great deal of roster continuity year-over-year, two attributes that are usually valuable when searching for a team capable of an upset. Much like Oral Roberts, however, this number would need to get back up to 9 to make Montana State a play. Lean: Montana State +8.5.

No. 2 seed Marquette -11 vs. No. 15 seed Vermont Marquette has some traits that make it seem like the classic highly-seeded team that doesn’t make it out of the first weekend — namely a good-but-not-great amount of roster talent, an iffy defensive profile and a weakness in rebounding. But is Vermont the team to take advantage? The Catamounts have their own more glaring defensive and rebounding woes. But they also have a strong pair of veteran guards who shouldn’t be intimidated by the Golden Eagles. Lean: Vermont +11.

No. 1 seed Purdue -22.5 vs. No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson Knights coach Tobin Anderson may be confident his team can beat the Boilermakers, but that seems pretty far-fetched with their ranking as the shortest team in the nation per kenpom.com. Edey has feasted on undersized teams all year, and Fairleigh Dickinson has the worst defense he's seen. Guess: Purdue -22.5.

No. 7 seed Michigan State -1.5 vs. No. 10 seed USC As much as I’d love to avoid citing Tom Izzo and his tournament success here, Tom Izzo and his tournament success are hard to ignore in this matchup. There’s not a whole lot separating these two teams as both Michigan State and USC are decent sides who have only shown the capability to level up on rare occasions this season. That means the coaching edge with Izzo over USC’s Andy Enfield could matter. It’s also no small advantage that this game is in Columbus, Ohio, with an early Friday tipoff scheduled to benefit the nearby team. Guess: Michigan State -1.5.

No. 8 seed Memphis -2 vs. No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic The Owls have put together a dream season where they’ve come through almost every time they’ve been doubted, but this might be the biggest talent disadvantage they’ve found themselves up against. The Tigers don’t have the superstar underclassmen of yesteryear, but instead have a grizzled group of veterans. Covering three times against Houston over the last month, and winning one outright, showcases Memphis’ high ceiling. Guess: Memphis -2.

No. 6 seed Kentucky -4 vs. No. 11 seed Providence Ed Cooley’s Friars teams are notoriously terrific bets as an underdogs, which has to give anyone who likes the Wildcats some pause. As does the narrative that Providence’s best player, Bryce Hopkins, transferred away from Kentucky after coach John Calipari minimized his role a year ago. Those are cute wrinkles, but are they enough to outweigh the inescapable truth that Kentucky has the far better roster? The Wildcats have been among the best underwhelming teams in the nation, but if there ever was a time to get it together, it would seem to be now. Guess: Kentucky -4.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or