Vegas pick’em: NFL week 1 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Suggestions to tread lightly on betting the NFL’s Week 1 in the final few days before kickoff aren’t misguided.

The best times to wager on the opening slate of the most popularly bet sport in America for everyone but the highest-level bettors were in the last couple months. Point spreads were posted alongside the NFL schedule reveal in May, and they’ve been beaten into place ever since with bets really pouring in at the end of training camp a couple weeks ago.

So, taking it easy is good piece of advice — albeit not one I’m heeding with the first edition of this year’s NFL picks column. I’ve found enough value to make plays on six of the 16 games this week at current numbers. For the eighth consecutive year, I’ll be handicapping every game on the schedule in this space.

Last year wound up a good one with a final record of 150-128-8 (42-36-7 plays, 54-49-1 leans, 54-43 guesses) through the Super Bowl.

Find this year’s picks for Week 1 below. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Plays (0-0)

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins The Dolphins already looked overvalued coming into the season, and now have the longest injury report heading into Week 1. This number swelled from -2.5 to -3, but Miami’s preponderance of banged-up players on the offensive line, in the secondary and among the skill positions should be worth at least a full point — even across a key number. The Chargers are the exact opposite, looking healthy coming off a season where that was rarely the case.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 at Minnesota Vikings It’s perceived that the Vikings were better than the Buccaneers last season, but the latter was rated higher by virtually every advanced metric including EPA (expected points added) and Aaron Schatz’s DVOA ratings. And, apart from at quarterback where the retirement of Tom Brady creates a major challenge, Tampa Bay retained more of its top talent in the offseason than Minnesota.

Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Browns have beaten the Bengals in five of six meetings since star quarterback Joe Burrow arrived with the latter franchise, and most of those victories were with a roster not a fraction as complete as this year’s. A bulked-up defense and an expectation that Deshaun Watson can regain his old form makes the Browns a contender in the AFC North, if not the whole AFC. Burrow meanwhile has barely practiced all summer with a calf strain and has a history of slow starts to the season under better circumstances.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 at Chicago Bears The Bears have a quarterback that’s never shown any ability to be a consistent passer (Justin Fields), a cluster injury at offensive line (only one starter is not listed on the injury report) and a defense that rated last in the league in EPA per play in 2022. How are they favored against any team other than the worst in the league? Packers +3 was the best bet on the board for the most of the summer, but the market is moving in the right direction and the visitors should close as the favorite.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Expect the 49ers to be far ahead of the Steelers by the midseason, but that’s not necessarily the case for Week 1. This is a tough spot in a game across the country. San Francisco’s offense looked more unsettled than Pittsburgh’s in training camp and the preseason, and the other side of the ball might be affected by Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa having missed all of training camp during a contract dispute.

Los Angeles Rams +5.5 at Seattle Seahawks The Rams faced the Seahawks twice down the stretch of last season with a severely beaten-up roster that included the absences of Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald, and lost by three and four points. Los Angeles is in a much better spot now. Seattle’s sudden reputation as a contender based on a surprise hot start a year ago and a sneak into the final NFC playoff spot is perplexing.

Leans (0-0)

New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Tennessee Titans Shout out to the South Point, which exclusively deals -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100) prices on all point spreads. The Saints are shaded higher — mostly -120 — at every other shop to make for a harder sell. But a flat 3 seems pretty cheap considering New Orleans has a distinct personnel edge over Tennessee and one of the NFL’s best homefield advantages in the Superdome.

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at Denver Broncos Denver has a cluster injury at wide receiver that may prevent it from attacking Las Vegas where it’s most vulnerable, in the defensive backfield down the field. Questions also remain about quarterback Russell Wilson after a reportedly so-so training camp despite the arrival of new coach Sean Payton. The Broncos should be favored, but not by more than a field goal.

Baltimore Ravens -10 vs. Houston Texans Baltimore’s new offense is reportedly pass-happy, and quarterback Lamar Jackson should have quite the opportunity to showcase it against an overmatched opponent in Houston. The Texans come into the year with the 28^th-ranked secondary by Pro Football Focus, and that might be generous based on expecting leaps from second-year players Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre, a duo who underwhelmed as rookies.

Indianapolis Colts +5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars The excitement for Jacksonville’s offensive potential should be more counterbalanced by a sketchy defensive outlook. The Jaguars come into the season ranked 26^th in defense by DVOA. That should make for plenty of holes for Colts tactically brilliant new coach Shane Steichen and raw-but-electric rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to exploit with a brand-new, mystery-shrouded offense.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Atlanta spent the offseason ensuring it has one of the most well-rounded rosters in the league; Carolina did not. I’m still bullish on the Panthers’ overall No. 1 pick, quarterback Bryce Young, but this doesn’t look like a situation conducive to immediate success. The Panthers have a lack of explosive players around Young, and their offensive line is also in shambles.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at Washington Commanders Arizona is the worst team in the league, but it feels like jumping to conclusions to paint the Cardinals as one of the worst teams in the recent history of the league as they’re being priced coming into the season. Is projected Arizona starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs any worse than Washington fifth-round pick quarterback Sam Howell? No wants to bet Arizona, however, so wait and potentially pick off a +7.5 by game day.

Guesses (0-0)

New York Giants +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Could the Cowboys’ advantage on the field be counteracted by the Giants’ edge on the sidelines? Not entirely but there’s a gulf between the ability of Giants coach Brian Daboll and Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, both from a schematic and decision-making perspective. New York was fortunate to make the playoffs last season but this year’s team looks better.

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions The opening price of Chiefs -7 in May was perfectly fair assuming both teams were at full strength. Similarly, a 2.5-point adjustment with neither the NFL’s best tight end (Travis Kelce) nor one of its best defensive linemen (Chris Jones) expected to play is also accurate. Picking the Chiefs therefore is just a hope that reigning regular-season and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes can work some magic, and that hasn’t been a bad bet throughout the course of his career.

New England Patriots +4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia racked up its gaudy offensive numbers last season against a historically weak slate of opposing defenses. That changes this year. The Eagles should still be among the top teams in the league but the Patriots are going to provide more resistance than they’re used to, especially with a cadre of pass rushers led by Matthew Judon to attack with.

New York Jets +3 vs. Buffalo Bills Full disclosure: I not only bet the Bills at the opening pick’em price but also picked them to win the Super Bowl. But this line has arguably moved too far, as the Jets’ pass rush led by Quinnen Williams and coverage unit led by Sauce Gardner should be as good as advertised. In a projected low-scoring game, points are more valuable.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or