Weekend wagers: A bunch of bets including three on UFC 303

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, June 29, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Hockey season never stops in Las Vegas.

As if the Golden Knights being the most beloved local franchise wasn’t enough, the NHL keeps bringing its biggest events to town. And they keep delivering.

The first night of the NHL Draft at Sphere was spectacular, as the league capitalized on the venue’s presentation capabilities and put on quite the show.

More importantly for the purposes of this column, it got everyone thinking about the outlook of the league next year. And, for me, that meant landing on the first NHL future of the new season.

I’ll take the New Jersey Devils to win the 2025 Stanley Cup at 16-to-1 at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, with a $250 wager to $4,000. The Devils missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year after being priced as one of the best teams in the league coming into the year.

They had a nightmare season of injuries and poor goaltending, but they’ve already addressed the latter by trading for Calgary netminder Jacob Markstrom earlier in the offseason. And the former should sound awfully familiar.

It’s exactly the situation the Golden Knights were in going into the 2022-2023 season, when I placed a wager on them to win the Stanley Cup at 15-to-1 in this column almost exactly two years ago. They came through, as did the Panthers for a $2,500 payout earlier this week.

NHL betting in Weekend Wagers finishes 9-6 for a $3,000 profit this season.

Maybe the Devils can make it three in a row. That’s at least the best place to start next season’s NHL futures portfolio.

Read below for 10 more bets, including three on the UFC 303 fight card that goes down tonight at T-Mobile Arena . Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Euro 2024 (0-1, -$100): Italy to advance vs. Switzerland at -135 (STN Sports)

$270 to win $200

From what I can tell, not a single person is picking Italy in this morning’s first match of the Euros’ Knockout Stage. And, to an extent, I get it. The Swiss have looked more impressive than the defending champion Italians to this point of the tournament. But that screams recency bias, an overreaction to three games of group-play action. Italy still has the better roster, and a style that excels in these win-or-go-home games. At the start of the tournament, Italy probably would have been closer to -200 to qualify in this matchup. I’ll buy the dip.  

WNBA (2-1, $70): Seattle Storm -9.5 vs. Dallas Wings (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

Seattle’s rebuilt team is coming together and crushing. More specifically, Seattle’s rebuilt team is crushing at home. The Storm have won six straight at home and covered in five straight. The beaten-up Wings don’t look like a strong candidate to end the streak. Dallas star-scorer Arike Ogunbowale is back but she’s short on pieces around her and the team has been defensively deficient going back several years. The likes of Seattle’s Skylar Diggins-Smith and Jewell Loyd should be able to bomb Dallas out of the building.

MLB (3-6, -$894): Tampa Bay Rays -126 vs. Washington Nationals (Boyd)

$252 to win $200

The Rays are playing better with wins in seven of their last 10 games going into Friday, and I don’t think it’s ending any time soon. The Nationals are playing worse with losses in six of their last 10 games going into Friday, and I don’t think it’s ending any time soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if I bet Tampa Bay in every game of this series. The Rays dramatically underachieved to the start the season, and it’s left value on them going forward. Betting against the Nationals has cost me all season, but I’m not ready to stop yet. They aren’t as good as their 38-42 record, and it will soon bear out in the standings.

UFC (4-8, -$586): Jiri Prochazka +135 vs. Alex Pereira (BetMGM)

$200 to win $270

Prochazka was on his way to upsetting Pereira at UFC 295 last November before he got caught with strikes and fell victim to a controversial stoppage. It always felt like Prochazka would be set up to prevail in a rematch, and that’s only increased with the rash manner in which this replacement main event was thrown together. Pereira came into — and out of — his UFC 300 win over Jamahal Hill banged up, while Prochazka went directly back into training. Prochazka showed a willingness to grapple the feared striker in their first matchup, and if he utilizes a similar game plan this time around, that’s another edge in his favor. Given all the factors, this fight looks like more of a pick’em.  

UFC (4-8, -$586): Diego Lopes -129 vs. Brian Ortega (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$258 to win $200

This line dropped 20 cents upon the announcement that Ortega would be unable to make the 145-pound limit and the fight was moved to 155 pounds, but that feels unnecessary. The 29-year-old up-and-coming Lopes still all the advantages over the 33-year old veteran Ortega, including the fact that he didn’t struggle with a weight cut all week. Ortega was reportedly in agony and couldn’t get lower than 151 pounds. Both fighters are terrific grapplers and could neutralize each other on the mat, but Lopes has a pronounced edge on the feet. Ortega tends to take a lot of damage and come back to win. That works against slightly lesser opponents but shouldn’t against a true standout like Lopes.

UFC (4-8, -$586): Rei Tsuruya by submission +200 vs. Carlos Hernandez (Boyd)

$100 to win $200

UFC 303 is deceptively deep, so I didn’t want to sign off before diving far into the undercard. Or without sharing a method-of-victory proposition to try to break the curse that’s put me in a hole in this category all year. This fight feels like a layup for Tsuruya, whom the UFC is looking to build up as it continues its push in the Asian market. Tsuruya is a feared wrestler, and should have no problem getting Hernandez to the mat. Once there, he’s strong enough to be a submission threat — much stronger than this line implies.   

Euro 2024 (0-1, -$100): Spain -1.5 -145 vs. Georgia (Caesars/William Hill)

$290 to win $200

Given the Euros’ expansion to a 24-team field, it’s no hyperbole to say Georgia might be the worst team to ever reach the Knockout Stage. It benefitted from a miracle draw against Czechia in a match where it was badly outplayed and an admittedly memorable upset against Portugal’s backups. On the flip side, Spain might have been the best team in the group stage. Like Portugal, it went with a backup-heavy lineup in its final match but still had no issue with dispatching Albania early. Spain has too much firepower for Georgia to contain, and a 2-0 or 3-0 victory look to be far and away the most likely outcomes.     

NASCAR (5-11, $100): Kyle Busch to finish in the top 10 of Tennessee Lottery 250 at +210 (Boyd)

$100 to win $210

This number is totally out of whack. It’s been a rough year for the most famous local racecar driver, but he’s dynamite on shorter, concrete tracks like Nashville. He finished ninth at Nashville Superspeedway last year, and fourth at Dover (the most correlated track) earlier this year. This line is as low as Even money elsewhere, and that’s a much fairer price. Busch might be in the third- or fourth-tier of overall Cup speed this year, but he should bump up a class or two at Nashville. It probably won’t be enough to win, but it can certainly be enough to contend.

NASCAR (5-11, $100): Martin Truex Jr. to win Tennessee Lottery 250 at 10-to-1 (South Point)

$100 to win $1,000

Speaking of Dover, Truex had the fastest car there despite finishing third in the end. He also had the fastest car at Nashville last year despite finishing second. That’s how things have been going for Truex, who always seems to have things like pit miscues break against him. But the bad luck shouldn’t be all that predictive going forward. At some point, he’s due positive regression. Why not at one of his better tracks? This line is as low as 7-to-1 elsewhere. I’d bet it to at least 8-to-1, as only Kyle Larson and teammate Denny Hamlin should be favored over Truex.

NBA (7-4, $2,030): Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $2,200

The NHL wasn’t the only league to stage a draft this week; it followed in the footsteps of the NBA in New York. And late murmurs indicated that the Kentucky product Sheppard was ever-so-close to being the top pick over Zaccharie Risacher. The Hawks might have even had Sheppard top on their draft boards, but didn't see him as strong of a roster fit as Risacher in the end. And according to NBA insiders, Atlanta wasn’t alone. Several teams saw Sheppard, who ultimately went No. 3 to Houston, as the top-available prospect and most of the metrics like Kevin Pelton’s wins above replacement agreed. Sheppard is ready to contribute immediately, and should be able to fill the stats sheet with points next year as a member of the Rockets. That’s the top predictor for Rookie of the Year, and Sheppard should have a leg-up on his draft mates.

2024 Weekend betting column: 65-64, $7,649.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 723-771-11, $38,930.87 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Portugal to win Euro 2024 at +750 ($200 to win $1,500); Xander Schauffele to win The Open Championship at 16-to-1 ($180 to win $2,880); Collin Morikawa to win The Open Championship at 24-to-1 ($120 to win $2,880)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or