NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 20, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Updated Thursday, March 21, 2024 | 1:16 p.m.

Note: For the 12th straight time dating back to 2012, Talking Points will be handicapping every NCAA Tournament game against the spread. This is the third entry of a four-part series previewing all the initial regions and games. Check back later for the final installment.

Glitz or grind.

One of the two characteristics is likely to win out and determine who reaches the Final Four out of this year’s South Region. The top four seeds in the South are the only teams in the region with an implied probability of better than 5% to come out of the bracket by the betting odds — No. 1 seed Houston (+125, i.e. risking $100 to win $125, at SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas), No. 2 seed Marquette (5-to-1), No. 4 seed Duke (5-to-1) and No. 3 seed Kentucky (+750).

Quality-wise, those four teams all deserve mention as some of the best in the nation. It’s the way they’ve gotten there where a chasm exists.

The stylistic divide couldn’t be more stark between the top two seeded teams in the South and their next two challengers.

Houston lives in the muck, preferring to dirty up games and exhaust opponents with defense and physicality until they can’t take anymore.

Marquette is somewhat centralized on the spectrum of astonish-vs-suffocate, but its defensive metrics have been superior to its offensive numbers all season.

The Golden Eagles were the opposite last year, but all the offensive spark and finesse only resulted in a second-round upset loss to a tougher-minded Michigan State team. Coach Shaka Smart set out to change the culture in the offseason, and by earning a second straight No. 2 seed despite an onslaught of injuries, it’s safe to say he succeeded.

It sometimes looks like bluest of the bluebloods, Kentucky and Duke, are playing a different sport than Marquette, or certainly Houston. The Wildcats and Blue Devils might be the only two teams in the country to produce multiple first-round NBA draft picks this year, and they’ve showcased it by giving the blue-chip recruits the canvas to produce highlights on a nightly basis.

Both Duke and Kentucky have captivated the betting masses to the point of them storming the window and apps to make future plays at different points of the season. The Blue Devils were reportedly the most popular bet to win the tournament coming into the year, before the Wildcats more or less stole the buzz and became the sleeper du jour with a five-game win streak to finish the regular season.   

Kentucky took so many bets at some sports books that its odds to win the tournament are historically low for a No. 4 seed. At Boyd Sports, for example, the Wildcats are 5-to-1 — behind only top overall seed Connecticut as the tournament’s favorite.

That’s an undeniably inflated price — the Wildcats are as high as 30-to-1 elsewhere — but a case could be made that Kentucky and Duke both landed a favorable draw on Selection Sunday.

Houston and Marquette may really have to put their gritty reputation on display by overcoming injuries to reach the Final Four. Having already lost three rotation players throughout the regular season, Houston saw starting power forward J’Wan Roberts go down with a leg injury in the Big 12 tournament and only play in a limited fashion.

Marquette has played its last six games without star point guard Tyler Kolek after he suffered an oblique injury late in the regular season.

Kolek and Roberts are both expected to play in the tournament but their health could make the top two seeds more vulnerable than they would be otherwise.

Duke and Kentucky enter without any major issues, unless there are any lingering effects from Blue Devil big man Kyle Filipowski’s much-mocked limping to the locker room after colliding with fans following a loss at Wake Forest. Filipowski, a potential lottery pick in the NBA Draft in June, didn’t miss any time despite Duke reporting him injured and calling for a ban on court-storming going forward.

It's a big deal for most programs to knock off Kentucky or Duke, not only because of duo’s historical prowess but, at least this year, the embarrassment of riches on their rosters. But having the most decorated players isn’t the only path to NCAA Tournament success.

Houston and Marquette are out to prove that playing hard-nosed basketball still works too.   

Read below for picks against the spread on every South Region game, separated in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time. Check back for an updated pick after Wednesday’s First Four game. 

No. 6 seed Texas Tech -5.5 vs. No. 11 seed North Carolina State, over/under: 145.5. The legend of Wolfpack center DJ Burns, who won Most Valuable Player honors in the ACC Tournament after overcoming 100-to-1 odds to lead N.C. State to victory, could continue to build in what looks like a plus-matchup against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is severely beaten up in the frontcourt with center Warren Washington having missed the last several games and forward Darrion Williams spraining his ankle in the Big 12 Tournament. They both may return for the NCAA Tournament, but don’t figure to be at 100%. Play: NC State +5.5.

No. 7 seed Florida -1.5 vs. No. 10 seed Colorado, over/under: 159.5. Yes, Colorado has gotten healthier than its been all season while Florida lost center Micah Handlogten in its last game, a blowout loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship. But all of that is now being factored too heavily into the line. The Gators would have been a 3.5-point favorite in this spot a few weeks, and a two-point decrease represents a buy point on a team that plays smart and is somewhat unlucky to be only 20-11 straight-up on the year. Play: Florida -1.5.

No. 2 seed Marquette -14.5 vs. No. 15 seed Western Kentucky The same questions regarding how effective Texas Tech’s injured players will be if they return also apply to Kolek — if not in a more dramatic fashion. The Golden Eagles’ whole offense is predicated on the point guard’s shiftiness and playmaking ability. Western Kentucky is probably underseeded given the relative toughness of the Conference USA, and it plays a frantic style that can throw opponents off balance. Play: Western Kentucky +14.5.

No. 4 seed Wisconsin -5 vs. No. 13 seed James Madison, over/under: 145. The stylistic changes coach Greg Gard has instituted to better utilize the Badgers’ athleticism this year makes them less susceptible to upset bids. This game will at least be contested at a moderate pace and give Wisconsin more chances to pull away. James Madison is slightly overvalued by virtue of luck in close games (9-2 in games decided by two possessions or less) and at the three-point line (it ranks first in the field in opponent three-point shooting percentage). Play: Wisconsin -5.

No. 3 seed Kentucky -13.5 vs. No. 14 seed Oakland, over/under: 158. The Wildcats mesmerized the masses because of the way they unleashed their arsenal of top-tier talent to blow out SEC teams with some of the largest athletic operating budgets in the nation. The potential of what they can do at full strength — something they never were during the non-conference schedule due to injury — to a mid-major like Oakland is terrifying. Kentucky’s lack of defense makes it a fade candidate overall in the tournament, but waiting for a better opportunity to bet against is necessary. Play: Kentucky -13.5.

No. 4 seed Duke -11.5 vs. No. 13 seed Vermont, over/under: 132. Play this game a couple weeks ago and Duke would have been pushing a 14- or 15-point favorite. A discount has emerged out of the Blue Devils' two-game losing streak combined with Vermont getting healthier in time to win the America East Conference tournament. But the Catamounts escaped in all three of their tournament games without covering the spread, not looking all that convincing against a mediocre-at-best slate of competition. Lean: Duke -11.5.

No. 8 seed Nebraska -1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Texas A&M, over/under: 146.5. The Cornhuskers accomplished far more than the Aggies — which are probably overseeded and deserved to be more on the bubble based on their resume — this season but their overall roster still pales in comparison. Getting a team as talented as Texas A&M as an underdog is too appealing no matter how often it’s underachieved. The tournament has a way of bringing the best out of some teams, and perhaps Texas A&M falls into that bucket this year. Lean: Texas A&M +1.5.

No. 1 seed Houston -24.5 vs. No. 16 seed Longwood, over/under: 128. I hate to employ the dreaded motivation angle, but it’s inevitable in many games with this large of a spread. If Houston cares enough, it should be able to completely stifle Longwood with defense. Considering the Cougars are coming off a humbling 69-41 loss to Iowa State as 5.5-point favorites in the Big 12 tournament championship game, they are likely to care enough. Lean: Houston -24.5.

No. 10 seed Boise State +2.5 vs. No. 10 seed Colorado, over/under: 140.5. The number has already climbed after opening at Colorado -2, and if it gets all the way to 3, Boise State could be elevated to a lean or even worth a small bet. The Buffaloes are healthier than they’ve been virtually all season to make this spread higher, but the Broncos are the more experienced and better defensive team. Guess: Boise State +2.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or