Sunday Sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 1 card

It’s all football from here on out in 2024.

The sport takes over the American sports betting world, and it’s no different for Talking Points with the shift from the Weekend Wagers column to the Sunday Sweats going forward. It’s time for a change anyway, as Weekend Wagers’ bottom line had been dropping in recent weeks after peaking in July.

I’m still well into the black with just short of a $8,000 profit on the year, but last week’s column accounted for a near $700 loss across several different sports covered. I’m therefore excited to home in on one sport, the NFL, by exploring many of various markets offered in this space going forward.

Sunday Sweats made more than a $5,000 profit last year, and has won in all four years of its existence. Let’s make it five.

Read below for bets in eight different categories ahead of NFL Week 1. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Bets placed outside of the weekly NFL pick’em will also be accounted for here.     

Tasty Total (0-0, $0): Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints over 40.5 at -105 (Boyd Sports)

$210 to win $200

I mentioned in the pick’em that I’m primarily targeting overs in Week 1 with the new kickoff rules, and it resulted in me locking in a poor price on Pittsburgh-Atlanta over 42 points. That game has now crashed to 41, perhaps influenced by the uncertainty of whether Russell Wilson will play. It now joins this game as one of eight contests with a total below 42 point. I can understand the low totals in most of those games but not in this one. The Saints still figure to be formidable on offense, and the Panthers should take a step up with Dave Canales calling the plays for quarterback Bryce Young. Both teams lost talent off their defenses and project in the bottom half of the league. They’re also playing indoors at the Superdome. Look for something like a 24-20 final to push this over by a field goal.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (0-0, $0): New York Giants +7.5 & Dallas Cowboys +8.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

If one of the categories in this column disappears some weeks, it’s most likely to be this one. There’s simply not any mathematical edge on teasers anymore locally with how far the prices has pushed out. Not surprisingly, this category was the big loser last year with about a $700 total loss at the end of the season. But ‘tis the season in Week 1, so I’ll relent. And, to be honest, I’m not relenting much because I really like this six-point, two-teamer. Both games have low, 41-point totals to add extra value to pushing the underdogs through the 3 and 7. I favor the Cowboys to win outright and see Vikings-Giants as a coinflip. I don’t think Minnesota should be favored on the road. Everyone in the world seemingly will tie Cincinnati -2 into their teaser, but that’s one I’d like to avoid. The Bengals are unsettled on offense with the Ja’Marr Chase situation, and had one of the league’s worst defenses last year.   

Moneyline Parlay (0-0, $0): Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions at +603 (Circa Sports)

$50 to win $301.56

The initial plan was to go with the usual two-teamer, tying the pair of AFC East favorites together. Then the Week 1 spirit hit me again. To heck with that. Let’s gamble and try to hit something bigger. It helped that Circa had the best price in market on all these sides with Miami at -165, Buffalo at -285, Dallas at +120 and Detroit at -210. Using the Cowboys in both categories is really tempting fate, but I un-popularly rate them as a top three team in the NFC. That means I’ll inevitably be backing them a lot early in the season. Detroit has rightfully gotten pushed up to a 4.5-point favorite but the moneyline hasn’t moved enough with it mathematically. I’m more trusting of the Bills and Dolphins, as they’re the two sides I’m most bullish on compared to the market in the AFC overall. Getting more exposure on the rivals in any way is the aim at the moment.

Player prop (0-0, $0): Amon Ra St. Brown Under 7.5 receptions at -132 (Boyd)

$264 to win $200

The Lions should be playing from ahead against the Rams on Sunday Night Football, and therefore be throwing less than the prop market implies. This might be a sneaky decent matchup for Los Angeles, too. The Rams are surely tailoring a large part of their game plan towards slowing St. Brown, and they might have just the guy to help in ascending young nickelback Quentin Lake. St. Brown lines up primarily in the slot where he will match up with Lake, who should quietly be up to the task opposite him. In the divisional round last year, St. Brown had a huge game against the Rams but he still only hauled in seven passes for 110 yards. He’s known as a high-volume receiver, but should get off to a slower start in that regard this season.

Anytime touchdown (0-0, $0): Gus Edwards at +250 (BetMGM)

$100 to win $250

Chargers running back counterpart JK Dobbins is at a lower price to score, +225, and that doesn’t make any sense. Dobbins might be the more explosive runner, but who is coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman going to turn to at the goal line? My money is on the 6-foot-1, 238-pound bruising Edwards over the 5-foot-7, 215-pound shifty Dobbins. This game probably isn’t the best to target anytime touchdowns since it’s bound to be slow paced and low scoring, but Edwards might be the likeliest scorer of all as the lead running back on a home favorite. He shouldn’t be higher than 2-to-1 to find the end zone.

Lookahead Line (0-0, $0): Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Caesars/William Hill)

$330 to win $300

The Steelers start the season with back-to-back road games, but are favored in the second one at elevation? Nuh-uh. Maybe Pittsburgh springs an upset in Atlanta this weekend, but the market is weighing in against that happening as the number has swelled to 3.5. And I like Denver to at least keep it close, if not threaten an upset, in Seattle despite being 6-point underdogs. If the Steelers lose and the Broncos at least cover, this number will move significantly by the time it reopens Sunday night. Denver might even be the favorite. That’s how I’d make it now — Denver -1.5. Pittsburgh might be down to a backup quarterback, Justin Fields, too. It’s getting too much respect by bettors.

Future Finding (0-0, $0): Bijan Robinson to have most rushing yards in Sunday Week 1 games at 14-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $1,400

I guess the theme of the first Sunday Sweats is piling it on Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ overall rating might be inflated, but the expectation that they're going to have a great rush defense is even more misguided. Pittsburgh ranked tied for 22^nd in the NFL last year in giving up 4.4 yards per rush. This is no impenetrable front. Robinson is set up for a massive year as the workhorse of the Falcons’ offense and should have his way with the Steelers. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s unit should be especially run heavy as quarterback Kirk Cousins works back from an Achilles injury early in the season. I’d make Robinson the favorite in this market, far from the fourth choice — behind Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams — as he’s currently listed.  

Non-football play (0-0, $0): Joey Logano -115 head-to-head vs. Kyle Larson in Quaker State 400 (Caesars/William Hill)

$230 to win $200

Logano might be the best superspeedway driver in the NASCAR Cup series. Larson might be the worst, at least relative to how effective he is everywhere else. Atlanta Motor Speedway is now a superspeedway after a recent repave and redesign. Larson hasn’t finished in the top 30 in three races at Atlanta since the change with Logano beating him every time including finishing first in March 2023. Superspeedway racing is volatile, so there’s a chance this could all flip in one race this afternoon. But I’ll take my chances at this short of a price. Larson seems to be getting credit for a decent history at Atlanta years ago that no longer holds any predictive value.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 0-0, $0

Weekend betting column year to date: 89-97-1, $7,992.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 749-809-1, $39,393.87 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600);  Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 ($220 to win $200); Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 ($315 to win $945); SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 ($75 to win $1,200); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525); Houston Texans -1.5 -115 at Indianapolis Colts ($230 to win $200); San Francisco 49ers -3.5 vs. New York Jets ($330 to win $300); Miami to win the ACC at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons over 42 points ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East at +225 ($200 to win $550); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North at +155 ($200 to win $310); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at 3-to-1 ($200 to win $600); Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West at -265 ($530 to win $200); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North at +1425 ($50 to win $712.50); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -190 ($380 to win $200)

 

 

 

 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or