Super Bowl Sweats: Five final plays to make for betting’s big weekend

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022 | 2 a.m.

A month ago, the Rams were one of three teams I “carefully considered” running a rollover moneyline parlay on through the Super Bowl before ultimately passing.

What a missed opportunity.

That would have been a nice bonus and boost to the Sunday Sweats bottom line going into the final game of the season. Instead, I’m left fighting one final slate to try to get over the $1,000 profit mark for the season in this column. It would take an extraordinary Super Bowl Sunday, likely with most the bets from both this column and the first props piece, to reach the $1,500 total from last year.

But, hey, it could happen. I’m going into the Super Bowl with optimism, and confidence I can hit the bets in these five Sunday Sweats categories one last time.

Read below for the final Sunday Sweats column of the football season. Bets placed outside of the pro football pick’em, including this props piece, will be tracked in the overall record here. The money attached to the record is with the assumption of a $100 wager on each bet. As a programming note, next week will be a hiatus before the “weekend wagers” column returns on Feb. 26.

Tasty Total (11-8-1, $196.05): Rams vs. Bengals over 48.5 (STN Sports)

I guess making a pick on the total is obligatory for the Super Bowl. That doesn’t mean I like it. Unlike almost every other bet in this space over the year — including the other five bets today — I haven’t played this myself. I think the total is about right, but if forced, the game state I’m envisioning may lend itself to points. I see the Rams taking a big lead at some point, likely early, and that will incentivize the Bengals to open up their offense. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense may not ever fully slow Los Angeles so the Rams could continue scoring points too. This game could easily land in the 50s, so let’s go over without much confidence and hope for the best.   

Two-team Teaser (14-7, $466.62): Double result — Rams win first half and game +125 (Caesars/William Hill)

The double-result market might be the closest approximation to the two-team teaser usually found in this category, and this pro-Rams’ wager looks mispriced. The Rams are as low as -105 (i.e. risking $105 to win $100) to win both the first half and the game at other sports books so finding a +125 (i.e. risking $100 to win $125) felt like unearthing a buried treasure. It’s a good lesson in price-shopping for the Super Bowl. A lot of books are going to have a lot of different prices.

Moneyline Parlay (9-11, $1,126.74): Will either team score three straight times? Yes, Over 5 sacks & Tee Higgins first reception under 10.5 +377 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

The SuperBook conveniently lists a decent amount of parlay-able props in one place. This is simply an exercise in piecing together a handful of bets I like on their own. I’ve already written about sacks looking like they should be in the forecast. Betting “yes” on “will either team score three straight times?” is traditionally one of the most dependable Super Bowl props and could be even more valuable in this matchup. Speaking of matchups, Higgins and Tyler Boyd should dominate the Bengals’ shorter routes, especially early in the game. The latter’s total for his first reception shouldn’t be in the double digits.

Player Prop (17-23, -$767.27): Matthew Stafford to score a touchdown +750 (Circa Sports)

Here’s another reminder to check out a few player props already placed that will be tracked in the weekend betting record. Those all had relatively standard payouts, however, so let’s throw in one longshot. Stafford isn’t known as a running quarterback, but it’s the Super Bowl — he’s going to do whatever he takes. The Rams have also lacked a dependable short-yardage option lately, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sneak it in if they find themselves on the 1-yard line. Stafford’s touchdown price is +500 or +550 in most other shops, and that’s not quite enough, but +750 will do.

Non-football Play (10-12, -$120.76): Tai Tuivasa +170 vs. Derrick Lewis at UFC 271 (William Hill)

Kudos to the UFC for getting back to staging a Super Bowl-weekend pay-per-view card, even if it’s not in its traditional Las Vegas locale but rather in Lewis’ native Houston. His co-main event looks like a coinflip to me. One of these two heavyweights is getting knocked out, and it’s curious that the odds are slanted so heavily in the hometown fighter’s favor. He is the more proven of the two, but at 37 years old, we’ve likely already seen his best. Not so for the 28-year-old Tuivasa, who appears to be peaking with a four-fight win streak. I’ve bet against him in most of those and paid the price, so hopefully the curse doesn’t live on with him going down as I finally back him. But at this price, it’s too hard not to take a shot with the hard-hitting shoey-downer.

Bonus non-football Play: Ryan Blaney to win the Daytona 500 at 13-to-1 (Circa Sports)

Since there won’t be a weekend wagers column next week, I’d be remiss not to weigh in on one of the biggest betting events of the year at least for a small niche of gamblers. There’s a case to be made that Blaney belongs as the favorite at Daytona as the NASCAR Cup series kicks off. No one really knows with the new next-generation car, but Team Penske seems to be slightly ahead of the learning curve. Blaney is its best driver at drafting tracks. There’s always a great deal of variance at superspeedways, but if Blaney can avoid the wrecks, he'll be in position to win late.

Sunday Sweats this season: 60-59-1, $901.38

Weekend betting column all-time: 238-223-1, $6,755.60

Previous pending wagers: Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or