Weekend wagers: Bets on five sports including MLB, UFC and golf

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 9, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Weekend Wagers bet on its customary five different sports last weekend and profited on all of them.

Granted, the UFC ledger was barely in the back with a 2-2 mark and one refund for a whopping grand total of $5. But all the other sports were clear winners, helping to wind up with a 7-3 overall record for $805 added to the bottom line.

Let’s run it back and get a little riskier this week with a few high-priced future plays. There’s no time for sports bettors to rest, even in the midsummer as moneymaking opportunities are still plentiful for those searching hard enough.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (4-4-2, $5,992.50): Kurt Kitayama +120 head-to-head vs. Cameron Tringale in third round of Scottish Open (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $230

A former UNLV golfer came through for us as an underdog last Saturday in the round-by-round market in Ryan Moore, and it just so happens there's another worthwhile bet to be made on another Rebel this week. Kitayama, who played at UNLV from 2011-2015, is currently four strokes back of Tringale for the lead but it would be no surprise if he outplays the more well-known leader the rest of the way. Links golf at courses like this week's Renaissance Club is more familiar to Kitayama than it is to Tringale. He spent the last several years on the European Tour while Tringale has been more of a staple stateside. Kitayama bombs the ball off the tee, which should come in handy at the Renaissance Club. Tringale holds a three-stroke lead and might be playing it safer on Saturday. That could backfire and lead players like the underrated Kitayama to cut into his lead.

 NBA (3-5, -$520): Memphis Grizzlies to win NBA Summer League championship at 11-to-1 (Circa)

$50 to win $550

To the surprise of no one, there appear to be no overnight odds on the Summer League posted in time to be included in the column. So the futures market is where it’s necessary to go to include the biggest sporting event happening in town at the moment. The Grizzlies kick off their stay in Las Vegas tonight against the Clippers, but it won’t be their Summer League debut. Memphis already participated in the Salt Lake City Summer League, winning two of three games and looking impressive in the process. That continuity should be an advantage in Las Vegas, and they also bring a strong roster while appearing to draw a weak schedule of their four guaranteed games. The teams with the two best records in their four games — with point differential as a tiebreaker — meet in the championship July 17. With this setup, there’s a good chance Memphis will be there. This is a generous price.

MLB (10-3, $1,293): San Francisco Giants -105 at San Diego Padres (Boyd Sports)

$210 to win $200

Let’s buy low on the Giants, who are mired in a slump that’s pushed them out of the current playoff picture. From top to bottom, San Francisco and San Diego remain evenly matched, though. And that’s before factoring in today’s starters where the Giants should have a clear advantage with Carlos Rodón taking on the Padres’ Yu Darvish. Rodón’s stuff has been a cut above Darvish’s this year. San Diego might look a lot better based on its record, but that’s highly misleading and it’s left value on San Francisco today.

MLB (10-3, $1,293): Texas Rangers -120 vs. Minnesota Twins (Boyd Sports)

$180 to win $150

Speaking of buying low, the Rangers offer a similar opportunity to keep the column’s one National League play/one American League play split going for another week. Texas had lost five of six entering play Friday but four of the losses were by a single run. The Rangers therefore aren’t struggling as much as their drop in the standings indicates. And this looks like a good spot to get back on track with their best starter this year, Martin Perez, taking on Minnesota’s mediocre Devin Smeltzer. Look for the Rangers to take money and leave this opener as a value price.

UFC (8-15, -$1,915): Kennedy Nzechukwu -128 vs. Karl Roberson at UFC Fight Night on ESPN (Circa)

$256 to win $200

From a talent perspective, this shapes up as a fair fight. From a physical perspective, it does not. Nzechukwu is four inches taller than Roberson with a nine-inch longer reach. He also previously fought at heavyweight, as opposed to Roberson who competed at middleweight as recently as last year. This bout will be contested at light heavyweight, and it seems likely Nzechukwu uses his frame to bully and control Roberson. This line is as high as -145 elsewhere, but Circa is still hanging a lower price. That’s a bit concerning given Circa’s reputation for taking the biggest bets, but it’s hard to get around this number looking light. Nzechukwu more than likely takes a nondescript decision victory.

UFC (8-15, -$1,915): Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev under 4.5 rounds at +135 of UFC Fight Night on ESPN (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$120 to win $162

I try to include the Main Event of UFC cards in the column if there’s value, and it looks like there’s some slim value tonight. This fight most likely goes one of two ways: Fiziev blitzes the older Dos Anjos and routs him early, or the latter outlasts the former and lets his cardio advantage shine in the late rounds. A finish is highly likely either way, especially in the smaller cage at the UFC’s local Apex facility. It’s not guaranteed, of course, but the chances appear closer than the 42.5% chance this line implies.

NASCAR (8-6, $1,200): Denny Hamlin at 12-to-1 and Joey Logano at +1695 to win Quaker State 400 (STN Sports and Circa, respectively)

$100 to win $1,200 on Hamlin, $70 to win $1,186 on Logano

It was only a year or two ago that Hamlin would automatically be priced as the favorite, at around 10-to-1, to win every super-speedway race. Logano would be listed second or third, along with Penske teammate Ryan Blaney. This is all relevant because Atlanta Motor Speedway has now been renovated to a virtual superspeedway. There was a race this year earlier this season for the first time since the changes, but none of the teams or drivers knew what to expect. Now with at least a little familiarity, the best drivers on superspeedways should rise to the top. Blaney is a deserved favorite at 10-to-1, but Hamlin and Logano should be right there with him. They are too far behind at these odds.

Golf (4-4-2, $5,992.50): Tiger Woods to make the cut at the Open Championship at -120 (Circa)

$180 to win $150

Let’s cap this week with a fun one to pair with my existing position on Jon Rahm to win next week's final major. The world’s most famous golfer was last seen making the cut at the PGA Championship in Tulsa at Southern Hills, a hilly course that was not in any way conducive to success or comfort with his surgically repaired leg. The Old Course at St. Andrew’s, which Woods has repeatedly called one of his favorite tracks in the world, should be much more forgiving. Woods should be playing into the weekend next week. Granted, this was an easier take when it opened at Even money earlier this year but -120 still implies only a 54.5% chance. Woods' true chances are slightly stronger than that.  

Weekend wagers year to date: 48-52-2, $5,689.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 390-382-4, $12,207.93

Previous pending wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Jon Rahm at 15-to-1 to win the Open Championship ($150 to win $2,250); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or