Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your NFL Week 15 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021 | 9:04 a.m.

So much for the NFL’s first Saturday doubleheader of the season.

Part of the reason why it was believed the league would stick to its word and not postpone Raiders at Browns was its status as a stand-alone game this evening, but its stubbornness only went so far. The NFL controversially, at least to the Raiders and their fans, pushed the game back Monday to leave just one contest on the docket for tonight.

The good news is, the remaining game is a doozy. Patriots at Colts was arguably the best game left in Week 14, after the Chiefs’ overtime win against the Chargers on Thursday, and now it’s going to be an even bigger showdown in sports books.

The bets will fly to create a massive handle for a game between the AFC’s two hottest teams. Sunday Sweats is getting into the action with the game being used in one of our five weekly betting categories

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the pro football pick’em, including a weekly prop on the Raiders’ game that runs Monday, will be tracked in the overall record here.

Tasty Total (7-7, -$67.59): Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers under 43 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Pittsburgh has been in some wild high-scoring battles in the last few weeks, but that’s not how the Steelers want to play. Not this year at least. And they shouldn’t have to this week with a number of injured defensive players coming back importantly including T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh’s splits with Watt on the field versus off the field are almost hard to believe. Tennessee meanwhile has been playing much better defensively than anticipated and much worse offensively. Granted, the latter is largely because the Titans have been short-handed. But that’s not changing this week in a cold game at Pittsburgh. This feels like a 21-20 or 20-17 final score.

Two-team Teaser (11-4, $516.63): New England Patriots +8 & Seattle Seahawks +12 at -120 (William Hill)

The Patriots are a perfect 6-point teaser leg, going through the 3 and the 6. Finding the second part requires some creativity. Taking Minnesota down to pick’em at Chicago is one possibility, but how many times have the Vikings let me down in Sunday Sweats? It feels like a bi-weekly event. Taking Seattle through the 7 and 10 against the Los Angeles Rams isn’t quite as valuable as getting Minnesota to pick’em mathematically, but it’s close. It also gives us action through Tuesday night, when this game was rescheduled largely due to COVID-19 issues within the Rams. The Seahawks have some positive tests too — namely to receiver Tyler Lockett — but they should have the fuller roster. They’re also playing better lately and might be a tad easier to trust than the Vikings.   

Moneyline parlay (6-8, $768.74): Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers & Philadelphia Eagles +136 (BetMGM)

For two years, I’ve avoided making this section the ever-popular just-parlay-the-big-favorites together ticket. So, what do I have to say for myself in this instance? Well, at least it’s not all the big favorites. It’s a strange week where not many of the underdogs, specifically short underdogs, offer much value on the moneyline — with the possible exception of the Patriots, which I already used in the teaser. So I’m just going to go with three favorites that I think are priced a little too low, especially at BetMGM, which has better-than-average numbers on all these sides. I’m not enamored with laying 5 with Jacksonville after the number opened at 3 but -200 is a solid option to win outright over Houston. San Francisco similarly should close higher than -425 against Atlanta, and -365 for Philadelphia is not all that bad for Washington. I try not to make bets like this often, but let’s hope it works out this time.  

Player prop (12-17, -$621.82): Leonard Fournette under 62.5 rushing yards (Boyd Sports)

Fournette’s entire career has been up and down, so Sunday Night Football is a perfect time to sell high. The Buccaneers running back has played exceptionally well lately, but he’s facing a new challenge in the Saints’ defense. New Orleans is No. 1 in the NFL against the rush by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. In four meetings with the Saints since coming to the Buccaneers last year, Fournette is averaging less than 24 yards per game. He’s only gone over 62.5 once, and that was when he went for 63 yards in last year’s playoffs. Fournette may keep up his hot streak, but it’s going to be difficult against the Saints and this number is too high.

Non-football play (6-8, -$185.76): Jon Rahm to win Sentry Tournament of Champions +850 (William Hill)

Golf is my go-to sport betting wise, and I’m itching to get back into it after a couple weeks of a blank schedule. Luckily, William Hill obliged and posted numbers for the Sentry Tournament of Champions to take place in Hawaii in a couple weeks to start the 2022 year in golf. And they opened the world’s best golfer too high. Rahm should close at 6-to-1 or lower before all of last year’s winners start to tee off on Jan. 6 at Kapalua, where he’s had great success by the way. The resort’s Plantation Course is a fit for Rahm’s bombing-and-putting centric style. Even if it wasn’t, Rahm +850 verges on being too high in any non-major tournament in the world right now. He played that well in 2021, and will likely keep playing that well to start 2022.  

Sunday Sweats year to date: 42-44, $410.20

Weekend betting column all-time: 217-206, $5,234.42

Previous pending wagers: Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or