Weekend wagers: More football futures in six bets on six sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022 | 2 a.m.

A week from today, seven regular-season Football Bowl Subdivision games will take place for our betting pleasure. Add in another trio of FBS vs. Football Championship Subdivision games, and you’ve got a full day of gridiron gambling if you want it.

What a beautiful sight that will be after more than six months since the Super Bowl — but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

Every weekend can set up as a big betting weekend with the right attitude and approach — even one where anticipation for football season seems like the foremost emotion present at local sports books. So that’s why I’m going to back to a wide-ranging approach for this version of Weekend Wagers.

I’ll toss in a couple more seasonlong football plays at the bottom, but only after handicapping four other current sports. Baseball delivered profit a week ago, but I’ll need to be a bit more well-rounded to keep building the bankroll this week.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (6-9-2, $5,457.50): Aaron Wise +110 head-to-head in third round of BMW Championship vs. Joaquin Niemann

$150 to win $165

This line is just disrespectful to Las Vegas' own Aaron Wise. He's been playing at a high level all summer, one so high that he should only be plus-money in a round-by-round matchup to the absolute elite players in the world. Niemann is awfully good, but he's not quite in the highest category. He's in the next group pushing to get up there — just like Wise. Niemann is a bigger name, largely because he's younger and has a pair of wins since Wise last prevailed on the Tour in 2018. But he's not on better form than Wise, whose game is also a strong match with this week's course at Wilmington Country Club. Wilmington has rewarded off-the-tee play most so far, and although Niemann and Wise hit for similar distance, the latter is more accurate with the driver. Wise and Niemann have posted the same score in each of the first two rounds, making it even more difficult to justify anything other than a pick'em line being fair.   

MLB (16-6, $1,923): New York Yankees -172 vs. Toronto Blue Jays (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$344 to win $200

What is this line a few weeks ago, before the Yankees’ slide? It would have at least been a hair over -200 with the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole starting against the Blue Jays’ Mitch White. The price has now shot down too far. There’s no denying the Yankees’ struggles, but there’s also no reason to overreact to them. They were always going to tail off a bit from the beginning of the season when they were on pace to post one of the best records in baseball history. It’s been a bit more dramatic of a drop than that but they’re still going to recover. They’re still a threat to win the World Series. This line opened as low as -165, so the edge is diminished but it’s still there. Here’s a situation where you shouldn’t hesitate to lay a big price.  

UFC (12-17, -$1,362): Jay Perrin +126 vs. Aori Qileng at UFC 278 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $252

Qileng is a bigger name, but that doesn’t make him a better fighter. Especially not in this stylistic matchup. As long as Perrin doesn’t get into a brawl with “the Mongolian Murderer” or allow a points-striking match to take place at distance, he should have an advantage. Perrin should be smart enough to avoid that especially considering he’s a coach at local Syndicate MMA, one of the top gyms in the sport. Perrin should have the upper hand in grappling exchanges and would be wise to push for them. This might wind up close, so the play isn’t for the faint of heart, but the line belongs around a pick’em.  

NASCAR (9-9, $1,000): Kyle Larson -120 head-to-head at Watkins-Glen Cup Race vs. Austin Cindric (SuperBook)

$240 to win $200

Both Larson and Cindric are considered talented road racers despite not having any wins on road courses this season. Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports team and Chevrolet manufacturer have performed much better than Cindric’s Penske Racing and Ford equipment though. Ford is on a roll overall suddenly, but its success on ovals won’t necessarily carry over on the final road course of the year. In his first full season as a Cup series driver, Cindric has been up and down anyway. Larson hasn’t quite been the force he was a year ago, when he pretty much won or contended in every race en route to a championship, but he still belongs in the conversation as the single best current NASCAR driver. He’s worth an outright bet at 10-to-1 to win at Circa too, but I’ll go safer and attack a matchup here.   

College football (0-0, $0): Oregon State over 6 wins at -130 (William Hill/Caesars)

$390 to win $300

Offense is stickier than defense, and the Beavers should have one heck of an offense this year with a ton of players back including quarterback Chance Nolan and local product wide receiver Tyjon Lindsey. The Beavers caught fire in the middle of last year and saw everything click despite a defense that ranked as one of the worst in the Power Five conferences. Calling for improvement might sound like wishful thinking but it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary. Oregon State is even more experienced on defense than offense and perhaps all the yards it gave up a year ago can serve as lessons going into the season. Oregon State finished 7-5 last year, and it’s hard to see it being any worse this year. Jonathan Smith is also one of the most underrated coaches in the nation to make this an even more comfortable bet to make.  

NFL (0-0, $0): Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC at 14-to-1 (Golden Nugget)

$100 to win $1,400

Speaking of underrated coaches, Philadelphia’s Nick Siriani seemed to figure it out as the year went along last year. He crafted a run-first offense that meshed with his team’s skillset and ultimately led them to a surprise playoff berth. He’s got a lot more to work with this season, including a list of newcomers that starts with new No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown. That’s not all though as the Eagles brought in a slew of other new faces, especially on defense. The Eagles’ price to win the NFC East has gotten nuked and they now sit as co-favorites with the Cowboys at +130, but it appears there’s less hype on their futures. They’re still also widely available at 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Both their conference and championship prices look a little short considering how wide open the NFC appears. No one is running away with the No. 1 seed this year. All the Eagles need is a slight step forward from quarterback Jalen Hurts, which seems reasonable, and 14-to-1 to win the NFC represents a value price.

Weekend wagers year to date: 61-67-1, $6,032.50

Weekend betting column all-time; 403-397-4, $11,968.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or