Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your NFL Week 17 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 | 8 a.m.

Christmas and COVID-19 put Sunday Sweats on a one-week hiatus last Saturday, but the column is back now through the Super Bowl.

I can’t take off any more weeks if I want to come even close to matching last year’s results, which totaled about $1,500 in profit. There’s a long way to go this year, but let’s kick off the new year with some optimism and believe it’s still attainable.

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the pro football pick’em, including a weekly prop on the Raiders’ game that runs Sunday, will be tracked in the overall record here.

Tasty Total (8-7, $23.32): Eagles at Washington Football Team over 44.5 (STN Sports)

Yes, these teams played less than two weeks ago and put up only 44 points in a 27-17 Philadelphia win. But statistically, it should have been much more than that. The Eagles piled up 519 total yards but also had two turnovers including one inside the red zone. Washington’s defense is a mess, and Philadelphia’s isn’t anything special either. The weather forecast is clearer for the season’s second matchup between these teams, as it’s supposed to be 64 degrees at kickoff with light winds. There should be points scored.

Two-team Teaser (11-5, $416.63): Seahawks -1.5 & Cowboys pick’em -120 (William Hill)

Seattle is a terrific teaser leg, going through the 3 and 7 against what should be an overmatched Detroit side. The problem is finding another team to pair the Seahawks with. No other lines fall into the standard teaser range, so I’ll take a leap of faith with the team playing as well, if not better, than anyone in the NFL. Dallas moved into first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings this week and aren’t going to let up as it tries to firm up a top-two seed in the playoffs. Arizona’s offense hasn’t looked the same without DeAndre Hopkins, and it now has to go up against a defense that’s clicking to an extreme degree behind rookie sensation Micah Parsons.

Moneyline Parlay (6-9, $668.74): Eagles & Rams +118 (BetMGM)

These were my two favorite sides in the NFL picks column earlier this week when they were both at -3.5. Well, those spreads are gone and the moneylines now offer better value. At least at BetMGM, which conveniently has both lower than consensus. The Eagles are -200 against the Football Team there, while the Rams are -240 against the Ravens. Putting the two together and getting plus money is appealing.

Player Prop (14-18, -$540): Dalvin Cook to score a touchdown +115 (Boyd Sports)

This follows an assumption that the Vikings’ offense won’t be totally helpless with veteran backup Sean Mannion at quarterback. That might be dangerous but he’s shown an ability to be at least competent in the past, and Green Bay’s defense isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, especially against the run. The Packers rank 30^th in stopping the run by DVOA. Some may be thinking Cook is set up for a bigger game with quarterback Kirk Cousins out, but it rarely works out that way. In fact, run-game efficiency usually tanks with the overall offense if a backup quarterback can’t perform up to standards. But Cook is different as one of the best running backs in the NFL, and just maybe Mannion will minimize his struggles on Sunday Night Football. Don’t forget to check tomorrow’s Raiders’ preview section for another prop bet.

Non-football Play (6-9, -$185.76): Cody Stamman +175 vs. Said Nurmagomedov at UFC 270 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

This is looking a few weeks ahead to the first UFC pay-per-view of the year on Jan. 22, but there are some great opportunities available betting this early. This might be the best. Said Nurmagomedov is not at the level of his brother, the retired Khabib Nurmagomedov, and therefore shouldn’t lay -200 to any midrange-or-better bantamweight fighter. Cody Stamman certainly falls into that category as a durable veteran worth buying low on and backing here. He’s lost two straight but both were decisions and not total blowouts. It wasn’t long ago that Stamman was on a 10-fight win streak, including his first three bouts in the UFC. This line should inch closer to pick’em by the time the fight goes off.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 45-46, $382.93

Previous pending wagers: Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament; Jon Rahm 8-to-1 to win Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or