Weekend wagers: Bets on the UFC 277 main event, an NFL future and more

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 30, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Weekend wagers is slumping, following two months of steady growth on the bottom line with back-to-back losing weeks.

Last week’s column was one of the worst-performing of the year, going 1-4 for a loss of $574. The struggles aren’t creating the type of momentum I hoped for going into football season, but there’s still time.

Football prep is continuing, and I’ll include at least one football future every week in the column going forward, but there’s also plenty of other sports going on to help boost the bankroll. Let’s shoot to getting back to the winning ways.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (5-8-2, $5,407.50): Cameron Davis -115 head-to-head vs. Chris Gotterup in third round of Rocket Mortgage Classic (Caesars/William Hill)

$230 to win $200

Gotterup, a big hitter who just graduated from the University of Oklahoma, is all of a sudden among the most hyped young players on the PGA Tour. The 23-year-old has made four of six cuts to start his career with one top-five finish. He's played very well for a couple months. But Davis has now played very well for a couple years on Tour. The 27-year-old Australian's longer track record of success should hold more sway in the betting market, especially in this tournament. Davis won this event at Detroit Golf Club a year ago. He's not in contention this year, with both Davis and Gotterup just sneaking into the weekend on the 3-under-par cutline but the former should have a better chance to climb up the leaderboard this weekend. 

MLB (13-6, $1,183): Minnesota Twins +120 at San Diego Padres (Wynn)

$200 to win $240

Padres starter Joe Musgrove has put together a fantastic year so far, but there are reasons for concern going forward. Musgrove’s velocity and spin rates plummeted in his last start, an 8-5 loss to the Mets on Sunday. Twins starter Sonny Gray isn’t that outmatched anyway. Gray is among the more underrated pitchers in the league as he’s been the most reliable member of Minnesota’s rotation. No one seems to believe in the Twins and continues to call for them to fall off. But they haven’t done so yet, and they shouldn’t start today either.

UFC (12-16, -$1,162): Amanda Nunes to beat Julianna Pena parlayed with under 2.5 rounds +153 (South Point)

$200 to win $306

No one was picking Pena to dethrone Nunes when they met at UFC 269 last December. Now it seems like everyone is calling for one of the most improbable champions in UFC history to do it again. I don’t see it. Nunes should regain her title at UFC 277 in Dallas. Pena barely survived her strikes in the first meeting and only won after Nunes gassed out in the second round. Nunes has put an extra emphasis on cardio this time around to make sure it doesn’t happen again. The 34-year-old Nunes is past her peak, but she’s still better than any other fighter at bantamweight. Pena pulled one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, but it’s going to be much harder to mount a repeat.

NASCAR (9-8, $1,200): Ryan Blaney +115 head-to-head vs. Chase Briscoe in Verizon 200 at the Brickyard (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $230

I just can’t quit Blaney even after he let me down again last week. But it was another example of bad luck getting in the way of undeniable speed as he blew a tire to fall out of contention and render my outright position useless. He might be worth another stab as an outright winner at 25-to-1 this week at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, but I’ll go safer and play a matchup. There’s conflicting motivation between Blaney and Chase Briscoe, both strong road racers. Briscoe may prioritize stage points — he’s done so recently to further secure his place in the playoff points chase — while Blaney is going for the victory without question. He somehow doesn’t have a victory yet this season, and although he’s one of the leaders in points, he needs a win to guarantee his spot in the playoffs. Blaney shouldn’t be a plus-price in a matchup to anyone outside of Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain.

NFL (0-0, $0): CeeDee Lamb to lead the league in receiving at 20-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $2,000

Lamb’s competition for targets among the Cowboys keep falling off. Dallas traded Amari Cooper in March, while just earlier this week confirmation came that Michael Gallup will miss the beginning of the year as he recovers from ACL surgery. This all adds even more to what was already looking like a monster year from Lamb, who could take the next step into the NFL’s top tier among wide receivers. He was 16^th in the league with 1,102 receiving yards last year, and that was before circumstances looked as tilted in his favor as they do this year. The Cowboys were already pass-happy, sitting 11^th in the league in pass-play percentage, but should throw even more this season with a tougher schedule and less dominant team. Eight players are listed ahead of Cooper in this market — with Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson the co-favorites at 8-to-1 — and that’s too many. 

Weekend wagers year to date: 57-64-1, $5,642.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 399-394-4, $11,618.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,00); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or