NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 16, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Updated Thursday, March 17, 2022 | 4:05 p.m.

The most perplexing bracket for sports fans who don’t follow college basketball until the start of the NCAA Tournament has to be the South Region.

Not even the boldest bracketologist mapped out this set of teams going into the season. The surprises start at the top where No. 1 seed Arizona are making history by ascending to the second favorite to win the national championship at 6-to-1.

Coming into the season, the Wildcats were breaking in a first-year head coach in Tommy Lloyd, coming off NCAA sanctions and picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Pac-12 Conference. At as high as 80-to-1 to win the NCAA Tournament, they profiled as a bubble team after having not made the field of 68 since 2018.

Arizona blew through those expectations right away, winning 15 of its first 16 games with the only loss notably coming to now region-mate No. 3 seed Tennessee. It’s almost as if it switched places with another team in the South — No. 11 seed Michigan.

At as low as 8-to-1 coming into the season, the Wolverines looked likely to claim a No. 1 seed for the second straight year. Instead, they plummeted and never found a rhythm en route to spending most of the season on the bubble.

Some of the other competitors in the region make more sense with preseason expectations, as No. 2 seed Villanova appeared to be a contender as soon as point guard Collin Gillespie announced he’d return. No. 5 seed Houston made the Final Four last year, but probably would have been picked for an even better seed.

Tennessee was pegged to be solid, but perhaps not this outstanding as its championship odds have cut down from 40 to 16-to-1 over the last six months.

Given Arizona’s borderline blueblood reputation there hasn’t been a lot of acclaim for how dramatic its transformation has been this season. But the odds help paint the picture of how their path to the No. 1 seed is virtually unprecedented.

Read below for picks on every South Region game. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. They will be updated when more matchups become official after the First Four games. This is the third of a four-part series. Read part 1 here, part 2 here and check back tomorrow for the final installment.

No. 7 seed Ohio State +1 vs. No. 10 seed Loyola-Chicago The Ramblers remain formidable, but they’re not on the level of their teams from the recent past that made the Final Four and Sweet 16 even though they’re being priced like it. Matching up with Ohio State’s prolific duo of E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham is going to be more of an issue than this line is indicating. Play: Ohio State +1.

No. 2 seed Villanova -15.5 vs. No. 15 seed Delaware One of Delaware’s best players is Dylan Painter, a Villanova transfer. I don’t point that out to push a “revenge game” narrative but instead as a sign of the talent at the top of Delaware’s roster. The Blue Hens will still be outmanned by the Wildcats, of course, but maybe not by quite as much as conventional wisdom. They’ll likely be able to hang around. Lean: Delaware +15.5.

No. 5 seed Houston -8.5 vs. No. 12 seed UAB What a rough draw for the Blazers, which would have a real shot at an upset against the right opponent. Underseeded Houston is not the right opponent and capable of taking away some of UAB’s best hopes, namely guarding the 3-point line where the Blazers have been lethal this season. Lean: Houston -8.5.

No. 6 seed Colorado State +2.5 vs. No. 11 seed Michigan The Wolverines’ resume might be as weak as the outcry over them comfortably making the tournament indicates, but their roster is not. This is the type of underachieving team that could make some noise in the tournament if they can finally click. They have too many big bodies inside, namely Hunter Dickinson and Moussa Diabate, to throw at Colorado State’s David Roddy for him to run roughshod like he did against the Mountain West Conference all year. Lean: Michigan -2.5.

No. 4 seed Illinois -7.5 vs. No. 13 seed Chattanooga Illinois’ 7-foot star Kofi Cockburn should create severe matchup problems for the Moccasins inside. Chattanooga is talented and dangerous but it’s hard to imagine it coming up with a game plan that stymies Illinois coach Brad Underwood, who’s one of the more underrated tacticians in the game. It’s only a matter of time before Underwood takes one of his teams on a deep tournament run, and may just happen this year. Guess: Illinois -7.5.

No. 3 seed Tennessee -16.5 vs. No. 14 seed Longwood Tennessee smothered all of the low-major teams it faced in the non-conference, and there’s no reason to think this will go much differently given the discrepancy in athleticism. If Longwood has an off-shooting night, and it certainly given Tennessee’s defensive ability, then this could get as ugly as a typical No. 1 vs. No. 16 seed matchup. Guess: Tennessee -16.5.

No. 1 seed Arizona -21.5 vs. No. 16 seed Wright State The Raiders were highly regarded coming into the season and pegged to contend in the Horizon League. They struggled to live up to that standard, finishing fourth in the conference in the regular season, but have recently shown flashes of the reasons for optimism in both their conference tournament coup and Wednesday's 90-70 First Four win over Bryant. Arizona shouldn't be able to totally embarrass them. Guess: Wright State +21.5.

No. 8 seed Seton Hall +1 vs. No. 9 seed TCU The Horned Frogs have played better over the last month, but on the season as a whole, Seton Hall has been the better team. The Pirates limped to the finish line in the Big East Conference tournament with a pair of losses against the spread but point guard Kadary Richmond was nursing a hand injury and should be recovered in time for the NCAA Tournament. Guess: Seton Hall +1.

No. 16 seed Wright State -3.5 vs. No. 16 seed Bryant Wright State might be the more talented team, but it’s also the more inconsistent team. The opening number of -1.5 seemed fair enough with little reason why the spread needed to be boosted two points past a one-possession game. Guess: Bryant +3.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or