Sunday Sweats: Six wagers to add to your NFL Week 4 betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022 | 11:47 a.m.

The Houston Texans could have single-handedly busted Sunday Sweats out of the red created by a disastrous Week 1 and into the black for the season last Sunday.

Houston was the only leg that missed on a moneyline parlay that paid about 8.5-to-1, but alas, it’s a bad team and did what bad teams tend to do and found a way to lose in Chicago. Quarterback Davis Mills threw an interception deep in Texans’ territory with a minute to go to set up a game-winning field for the Bears, which prevailed 23-20 and kept Sunday Sweats at a modest profit ($80) for the week.

I’m primarily counting on a new team to dig me out of the hole this week, thankfully one that should be slightly more competent than the Texans. Pro-San Francisco 49ers' bets dot half of my weekly six categories.

Read below to find out which ones. Check back tomorrow for an additional bet in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ play, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (1-2, -$240): Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions under 48 points (South Point)

$220 to win $200

Both these offenses have played well this season — the Lions are seventh by Football Outsiders’ DVOA while the Seahawks are 12^th. Both these defenses have played poorly this season — Detroit is 22^nd in DVOA and Seattle is 30^th. Those numbers should regress, however, and settle more towards the middle of the pack. This number is too much of a reaction to what’s happened early in the season. It also helps the case for the under that the Lions will be missing arguably their two best offensive weapons due to injury — running back D’Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon Ra-St Brown. Detroit’s offense should still be decent, but both teams should score around the low 20s to finish with a total score in the mid-40s.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (1-2, -$250): New Orleans Saints +9 & Atlanta Falcons +7 at -120 (William Hill/Caesars)

$120 to win $100

There were a lot of great teaser options going through the 3 and 7 early in the week —Buccaneers at +8.5, Broncos +8.5, Falcons +8, Saints +8.5, to name a few — and now…they are all gone. No Wong teasers remain on the board, so I’ll scale back the bet-sizing and go with two sides that still offer decent value. The Falcons could flip to a small favorite instead of small underdog depending on the statuses of edge rushers Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, who are both questionable right now. And the Saints should be able to keep it close with the Vikings regardless of whether it’s Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston starting at quarterback.   

Moneyline Parlay (1-2, $11): San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers & Chicago Bears +499 (South Point)

$150 to win $748.50

The Bears busted last week’s parlay, and now I’m counting on them banking this week’s edition. They’re clearly the riskiest side included as a +135 moneyline underdog at South Point to the Giants. But the Giants have a cluster injury at receiver, and haven’t been any better than the Bears this season in the first place. Chicago is higher in both DVOA and expected points added per play. South Point has the market-best price on the Bears’ moneyline, and also has better-than-average offerings on the Chargers (-240) against the Texans and 49ers (-125) versus the Rams. Both the favorites should be favored a little more heavily, making this a three-teamer that offers clear value. It’s time to go from, “Boo! Bears,” to, “Go Bears.”   

Player Prop (2-4, -$480): Tyler Higbee under 42.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

Reports going into the season indicated the excellent tight end’ s role in the offense might be slightly diminished, but it hasn’t played out that way. Through three weeks, he’s averaged 57 receiving yards per game, which would be a career high. But Higbee has benefitted from plus matchups, something that won’t be the case here. The 49ers have been among the best teams in the NFL against tight ends under defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and the strength has carried over to this year. Granted, it’s a short sample, but San Francisco is second in DVOA against tight ends through three weeks.  

Future Finding (0-1, -$50): Will Los Angeles Rams win NFC West? No at +145 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $290

I considered betting the 49ers to win the division here initially but wanted at least 2-to-1. The best price I could find, at Circa, was +190. So, I pivoted and just decided to fade the Rams, a team that I still thinks presents reasons for skepticism. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford isn’t 100%, and the defense looks a clear step down from last year’s Super Bowl championship version. The 49ers probably win the NFC West if the Rams don’t, but the market tends to underprice tail events like the Cardinals or Seahawks making an unexpected run. It’s likely not going to happen, especially the latter, but there’s a non-zero chance it could. Arizona specifically could be dangerous later in the season if it stays afloat while dealing with its rash of early-season injuries and the suspension of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. I’ll pay just a little bit extra and get three teams against the Rams instead of just one.

Non-football Play (2-1, $190): Richard Mansell to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at -120 (Boyd Sports)

$240 to win $200

The British off-the-tee bomber Mansell carries a four-stroke lead into the final round at The Old Course at St. Andrew’s. That should be a comfortable enough cushion to guide him to victory. It’s not like Mansell is some random player who’s gotten hot over the last three days to reach the top of the leaderboard. He’s been hot all season with five top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour including two top-five finishes since August. It’s felt inevitable that he was going to break through with a win at some point. It now feels like that moment will come early this morning in Scotland.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 7-12, -$819  

Weekend betting column year to date: 75-90-1, $4,129.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 417-420-5, $10,065.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or