Weekend wagers: Nine bets to make during a busy Las Vegas sports stretch

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 4, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Nowhere will have more world-class sporting events than Las Vegas over the next week.

UFC 285 is the first major event on a crazy-busy stretch of the local sports calendar Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena. The hits don’t stop coming from there, with NASCAR’s Pennzoil 400 on Sunday followed by a likely Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s college basketball showdown in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship on Monday night.

The college basketball slate never slows down as a handful of other conference tournaments (headlined by the Pac-12 and Mountain West) start next week. It’s an exciting time locally, and the only way to make it even better is by having action on all of it.

I’ll dive into seven sports in this week’s Weekend Wagers column to supplement a handful of bets already placed on UFC 285 with several of them happening here. I’m hoping some home-cooking can help me bounce-back from a terrible start to the post-football year last week where I went 2-6 and lost $1,000.

Read on for this week’s weekend wagers. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page for another year.

Golf (0-1, -$200): Keith Mitchell Even money vs. Cameron Young in third round of Arnold Palmer Invitational (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $200

The veteran Mitchell is quietly playing as well as anyone outside of the very top players on the PGA Tour. And, yes, that includes the young hotshot Young. Mitchell’s game fits perfectly at Bay Hill, where he has a pair of top 10s earlier in his career. Currently sitting tied for 13^th at 3-under par, he should be line to bank a third top-10 in the event this weekend. Young, at 4-under par, may do the same but there’s more variance in how his final two rounds will play out. He’s not quite as accurate as Mitchell, a weakness that can be penal in his tournament. These guys are pretty close overall, but Mitchell should have a slight edge in this tournament. He shouldn’t be available at Even money.   

NHL (0-1, -$200): Detroit Red Wings +170 at New York Islanders (Caesars/William Hill)

$120 to win $204

The Red Wings don’t have a competent goaltender behind Vile Husso. That’s a problem now that Husso is injured and missing at least this morning’s game. The betting odds deserved some adjustment but this one might be too large. A fair price for the Red Wings at full-strength in this matchup would be about +145. More than a 3 percent move is on the high side in going from Husso to Magnus Hellberg. The latter has admittedly struggled but mostly against offensively-sharp opposition. The Islanders are not that, as they routinely struggle to score. Detroit likely loses but their win probability is higher than this line implies.

NBA (0-1, -$220): Toronto Raptors +1.5 at Washington Wizards (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

Washington couldn’t miss two days ago against Toronto, hitting 43 of 84 field goals to win 119-108 on the front end of back-to-back matchups between the two teams. The Wizards closed +2 in that game, and adjusting the line 3.5 points because of one hot shooting night in an 11-point win is way too aggressive. Toronto is still the better overall team. The Raptors shouldn’t leave the American capital having been swept.

XFL (0-1, -$220): Seattle Sea Dragons at Las Vegas Vipers under 38.5 (BetMGM)

$110 to win $100

Let’s start our trip through Las Vegas’ weekend sporting events at Cashman Field of all places, a place where the field surface is not conducive to scoring. The Vipers scored six points a week ago, and it was struggle to get there. While rain is not in the forecast for tonight’s game, something just as disruptive is — up to 25 mile per hour winds. Seattle has an uptempo and potentially explosive offense behind coordinator June Jones but shouldn’t be able to get fully unleashed in tonight’s conditions. This total belongs more around 36.

College basketball (0-1, -$220): Oregon -7 vs. Stanford (Boyd Sports)

$275 to win $250

Speaking of can’t-miss shooting performances, the Cardinal posted a near 60% rate from the field in an 83-60 victory over Oregon State as 4.5-point favorites earlier this week. They’re going to face a little more resistance against the Ducks, which are particularly stingy around the basket. Oregon has put together a disappointing year and won’t make the NCAA Tournament barring an unforeseen championship run in the Pac-12 Tournament next week at T-Mobile Arena but remain one of the more talented teams in the conference. Oregon has the personnel to blow out Stanford.

UFC (1-0, $200): Cody Garbrandt +500 to win by decision vs. Trevin Jones at UFC 285 (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $500

As promised, I’m throwing in one play from the preliminary card to go with my full breakdown of the UFC 285 main card. Stock is way down on the former bantamweight champion Gabrandt because he can no longer take a punch. But Garbrandt knows he can’t take a punch as well, and has spent his last couple fights desperate to avoid damage. It shouldn’t be that hard in this instance, as Jones is more of an at-range striker than an aggressive, homerun-seeking hitter. Backing Garbrandt is always a risk at this stage of his career but he’s faced much better competition and should be able to edge Jones. And because of his newfound fighting style, doing so by points is more likely than by finish.

UFC (1-0, $200): Jon Jones vs.Ciryl Gane to not go the distance at -105 (BetMGM)

$262.50 to win $250

Let’s go with a bonus play on tonight’s big fight card. This wasn’t part of the plan, but that’s only because I hadn’t seen this price. It’s too good to pass up and looks way too cheap. I’ve been second-guessing my bet on Gane to upset Jones because there’s such a clear path to the latter winning by submission. This bet covers the two most likely outcomes, in my opinion, between a Gane knockout/TKO and a Jones submission. Five rounds is a long time for heavyweights last in the octagon, something these odds underestimate. Perhaps the price is based on Jones’ light heavyweight career, but that’s mostly irrelevant tonight. It’s a whole new start to Jones’ career, and one way or the other, it should commence with a finish.

NASCAR (1-0, $200): Bubba Wallace -120 vs. Chase Briscoe head-to-head in Pennzoil 400 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

From fading Wallace a week ago to backing him here, it’s all about track type for 23XI driver if not his Toyota manufacturer as a whole. And Toyota had figured out the intermediate ovals with moderate tire wear like Las Vegas Motor Speedway by the end of last season. It’s something they should carry into this weekend’s race. Briscoe is no slouch himself — and even finished fourth in last October’s NASCAR stop in Las Vegas — but his Stewart-Haas Racing team hasn’t been as competitive as it once was in the new car. Wallace has more upside, and should be priced as a higher favorite in this matchup.

XFL (0-1, -$220): Orlando Guardians +9 at Arlington Renegades (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

To heck with it, here’s one more bonus play on what just might be the worst professional football team you’ll see this year. I’m really selling it, huh? The Guardians have been outscored by 39 points in two games so far. The Renegades are definitely better and deserved to be favored, but they don’t have the offense to merit laying this many points. Arlington is averaging an XFL-worst 3.3 yards per play, .8 worse than Orlando’s mark. Maybe defense can lead the Bob Stoops-coached squad to victory, but asking the Renegades to do it by more than a touchdown is a lot.

Weekend betting column year to date: 2-6, -$1,000

Weekend betting column all-time: 491-503-5, $17,126.92

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Luka Doncic to win NBA MVP at 4-to-1 ($450 to win $1,800); Boston Celtics to win Atlantic Division at -220 ($660 to win $300); Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or