Weekend wagers: Seven bets to make including a college football prop

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The hibernation period of Weekend Wagers is postponed. There’s too much going on this weekend, even outside of football, to close our eyes.

I hinted in last week’s column that Weekend Wagers was giving way for Sunday Sweats as it’s always done in the past but have since reversed course. The NFL exotics-focused Sunday Sweats piece will still run weekly on Saturday afternoons, but I’ll continue to mix in Weekend Wagers when I can to cover everything else.

Weekend Wagers is running too hot to shut down, especially after posting another four-figure profit a week ago. Last-minute NFL bets will now exclusively run in Sunday Sweats but will be tracked here along with all the other sports.

Read below for seven non-NFL bets to make this weekend. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

MLB (13-7, $1,350): Chicago Cubs -135 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Wynn)

$270 to win $200

Chicago’s starter, Justin Steele, should be the National League Cy Young favorite right now. And unlike recent top contenders Zac Gallen and Spencer Strider, he shouldn’t implode to hurt his chances. Steele has been too consistent overall and too sharp lately. He’s at a big advantage over counterpart Merrill Kelly, who like his teammate Gallen has been much more effective at home. The Cubs’ lineup was flummoxed by Gallen on Friday in a 1-0 loss, but it’s too talented to expect back-to-back poor performances. They should hit enough with Steele on the mound to get a comfortable win.  

Tennis (3-1, $670): Aryna Sabalenka -115 vs. Coco Gauff in women’s US Open final (STN Sports)

$230 to win $200

This line is steadily moving in Gauff’s favor, and I don’t agree with it. Sure, Gauff is a fan-favorite American who’s on better hard-court form than Sabalenka. But overall, the 19-year-old phenom is not on the level of the 25-year-old top-ranked player. Sabalenka’s power can overwhelm anyone, and Gauff will likely fall the latest victim this afternoon at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Betting on Sabalenka is rarely comfortable given her double-fault issue, but when she’s locked in, she’s extremely difficult to beat. She sure was locked in Thursday night to come back after losing the first semifinal set 6-0 to Madison Keys, and I’m hoping that’s a mentality she can carry over into the championship match.

College football (1-1, $86): Jalen Milroe under 207.5 passing yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

There was major concern about the Alabama quarterback’s passing ability all last season into training camp, but suddenly he tears up Middle Tennessee in Week 1 and all is solved? Something doesn’t smell right. Texas’ defensive backfield is full of blue-chip players and will serve as a tougher test by multitudes. Oh, and by the way, despite three touchdown passes and an extremely efficient day, Milroe only tallied 194 passing yards. There are just so many ways this bet can win. Milroe and the Crimson Tide could destroy the Longhorns on the ground and not need this many yards through the air. Or coach Nick Saban could even sub out Milroe for a series, or permanently, to give Tyler Buchner or Ty Simpson some playing time. There’s way too much uncertainty for this high of a line to be attached to Milroe.   

UFC (17-21, -$114): Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO +115 vs. Sean Strickland at UFC 293 (Boyd)

$200 to win $230

The UFC middleweight champion says he’s going to go “John Wick” on the locally-trained challenger, and I’m willing to take his word on it. Adesanya’s striking is so much more fluid and consistent than Strickland’s that he should be able to wear him down over the course of a five-round fight. A flash knockout like Adesanya pulled off in his last fight, against Alex Pereira, feels unlikely but one that comes after a preponderance of punishment is likely. In fact, it’s the most likely way this fight finishes even though it’s not priced as such. Strickland looked rough at Friday’s weigh-ins in Sydney, Australia, and mentioned that the extra pound to get to the 185-pound championship limit took a toll on him. Hard weight cuts typically affect fighters’ cardio negatively, which is just another factor working in the favor of Adesanya securing the knockout.

NASCAR (18-13, $5,130): Brad Keselowski -110 head-to-head vs. Chris Buescher in Hollywood Casino 400 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

I won in this column on the other side of this bet last week at Darlington, but Buescher was available at +150 in the matchup. Now the line has flipped too far the other way. Keselowski remains the better driver out of the two RFK Racing teammates, and he’s had the faster car this year more often than most may realize. Buescher is getting all the love out of his recent hot streak that’s included three wins, but Keselowski is also in position to be a factor in the Cup series playoffs. He's got a better history at Kansas Speedway, and should be a bigger favorite this weekend. Pricing him at -170 last weekend against Buescher was way too high, but -110 is way too low.

NASCAR (18-13. $5,130): William Byron to win Hollywood Casino 400 at +850 (Circa Sports) and Tyler Reddick to win Hollywood Casino 400 at 9-to-1 (BetMGM)

$168 to win $1,428 on Byron; $160 to win $1,440 on Reddick

Hendrick Motorsports is going to be difficult to beat this weekend. The team has been the best at intermediate tracks like Kansas all year. Kyle Larson has its top current car but he won last week, and now has seen his price drop to around 5-to-1 — too low to find any value. Byron has been just as strong, if not better, than Larson on the year as a whole so getting him at much-higher odds is attractive. The other team to look out for is 23XI Racing. Both Reddick and Bubba Wallace could contend here, but the former has typically had more speed this season. Reddick should be closer to 7-to-1, just behind the likes of Larson, Byron and Denny Hamlin as the race favorite.  

Golf (5-12-1, -$970): Europe to lift Ryder Cup trophy over USA at +120 (STN Sports)

$200 to win $240

It’s not a fluke that the United States hasn’t won a Ryder Cup on European soil since 1993. Courses like this year’s Marco Simone Golf Club in Rome are a lot different than stateside tracks, and the Europeans are more comfortable after having grown up on them. But that’s all secondary to this handicap, which really comes down to who’s on the best form right now. And, at least on the top, it’s the European team by far. It’s hard to beat Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland at the moment. American Scottie Scheffler belongs in the group but his putting has been a disaster for months, and scoring on the greens takes on even more importance in match play. This isn’t the most pro-America column this week with bets against both Gauff and the US golfers in championship events, but that’s where to find the current value.

Weekend betting column year to date: 87-108-3, $8,200 

Weekend betting column all-time: 565-603-10, $26,709

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Novak Djokovic to win men's US Open at +140 ($300 to win $420); Ons Jabeur to win women's US Open at 28-to-1 ($50 to win $1,400); Week 1 two-team, six-point teaser: Cleveland Browns +8 & Green Bay Packers +8 at -120 ($240 to win $200); SMU to win the AAC at +350 ($300 to win $1,050); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or