Week 14 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Dec. 13, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Like performers on the Strip who slightly alter their routines to keep repeat attendees interested, the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys continue to find new ways to thrill sports bettors under the same basic premise.

The Packers and Cowboys each secured victories and covers in the final seconds of their respective games last week. Richard Rogers caught a 61-yard Hail Mary from Aaron Rodgers to give Green Bay a 27-23 victory over Detroit as 2.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football. Four nights later, Dallas kicker Dan Bailey booted through a 54-yard field goal with 9 seconds remaining to beat Washington 19-16 as a 2.5-point underdog.

Sports books thundered louder for those finishes than any other in Week 13, even though suspenseful decisions have become ordinary for the two ultra-popular NFC franchises. Since the start of November, point-spread decisions in half of the games involving the Packers and Cowboys have come down to the final seconds.

There’s no telling what they’ll conjure up at 1:25 p.m. today when they play each other at Lambeau Field with the Packers laying 7 points on the betting line.

Dallas at Green Bay is the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest, making it a required selection in the competition asking three sports writers to place six wagers off of the South Point betting board. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

They most certainly managed some magic in their last meeting. Officials overturned a fourth-down catch by Dallas receiver Dez Bryant at the 1-yard line late in a divisional-round playoff game at Green Bay, a call that’s still debated nearly a year later.

The score held from there with Green Bay escaping 26-21 as a 5.5-point favorite. The two teams may have looked fated for another postseason encounter after starting this season 2-0 straight-up to hold two of the three top spots in odds to win the NFC on the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook betting board.

One thing more surprising than their struggles since the strong start to the season is that they both remain in position to reach the playoffs. Green Bay’s practically guaranteed of prolonging its season for the seventh consecutive year despite a 2-4 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread run that preceded the miracle Detroit victory.

The Packers are nearly a minus-300 (risking $3 to win $1) favorite to win the NFC North and tied with the Seahawks as the fourth-choice to win the conference at 4-to-1, behind only the Panthers and Cardinals. They’re 8-to-1 to win Super Bowl 50.

Green Bay’s 8-4 straight-up record goes a long way in explaining the short odds, but the same reasoning doesn’t extend to Dallas’ relatively low prices. The Cowboys are 7-to-2 to win the NFC East, 30-to-1 to win the NFC and 60-to-1 to win the Super Bowl despite going 4-8 straight-up and against the spread, the latter tied for worst in the NFL.

It’s all a product of playing in the NFC East, where each of their three divisional rivals are only a game better. But it feels like the Cowboys deserve that good fortune for all the bad luck they’ve taken elsewhere.

Quarterback Tony Romo’s fractured collarbone has been no doubt the most impactful injury of the NFL season. Dallas hadn’t covered or won in a single game without Romo, who came back for two games before getting re-injured, until the victory against Washington last week.

The Cowboys’ offense has proven anemic, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Current starting quarterback Matt Cassel is in the NFL’s bottom five in passer rating, while running back Darren McFadden rates 11th worst among qualified running backs with 3.8 yards per carry.

Dallas’ defense has played well enough to keep it competitive, but the Cowboys had gone 0-5 in games decided by less than a touchdown before last week. Linebacker Sean Lee is having an All-Pro season, ranking in the NFL’s top 10 in tackles.

The Packers have fewer excuses for their pseudo collapse. They lost top receiver Jordy Nelson to an ACL injury in the preseason, but have avoided major personnel losses since then.

After starting the season 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread, their offense hasn’t been the same. The Packers are averaging just 5.3 yards per play, 20th in the league, and Aaron Rodgers has six straight games without reaching a 100 passer rating.

Last year’s NFL MVP also suffered the first four-game losing streak against the spread since his first season as a starter. Like the Cowboys, the Packers also rate out higher on defense having only surrendered 5.5 yards per play to sit 17th in the NFL.

Fifteen of the teams’ 24 games have gone under sports books’ point total. They almost surely wouldn’t play each other and it might not be for the anticipated reasons, but the Packers and Cowboys both still have a shot at the playoffs.

For sports books’ excitement sake, their inclusions would be valuable.

Check below for full week 14 picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 44-32-2 (3-3 last week)

Browns minus-1.5 vs. 49ers

Redskins plus-3.5 at Bears

Chiefs minus-10.5 vs. Chargers

Buccaneers minus-4 vs. Saints

Cowboys vs. Packers under 43

Ravens plus-12 vs. Seahawks

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 33-41-4 (3-3 last week)

Chargers plus-10 at Chiefs

Saints plus-4 at Buccaneers

Jaguars minus-1 vs. Colts

Packers minus-7 vs. Cowboys

Raiders plus-6.5 at Broncos

Giants minus-1 at Dolphins

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 32-42-4 (3-3 last week)

Steelers plus-3 at Bengals

Bills pick’em at Eagles

Jets minus-7 vs. Titans

Patriots minus-3.5 at Texans

Broncos minus-6.5 vs. Raiders

Packers minus-7 vs. Cowboys

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.