Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 7 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The lines on six of seven games listed as plays in last week’s pick’em column moved in Talking Points’ direction from Thursday’s publication date to Sunday’s kickoff.

That’s what made the resulting 3-4 record so disappointing. The 7-7 overall showing picking every Week 6 contest felt similarly deflating considering I got closing line value in 10 total games, with three lines moving against me and one staying neutral.

If a bettor can consistently get ahead of the market to that extent, he or she is going to win over time. It’s just easier said than done and therefore sometimes difficult not to get down about short-term results.

The NFL has produced all sorts of crazy short-term results this year, especially last week. Favorites and underdogs technically split in each going 7-7 against the spread, but six of those were outright upsets including big surprises like the Steelers downing the Buccaneers 20-18 as 9.5-point underdogs and the Jets beating the Packers 27-10 as 7.5-point underdogs.

Those were two of my aforementioned hard-to-stomach losses from last week, but I’ll put it in the past now. Let’s try to get numbers that again move in our favor in Week 8, and hope they pay off this time around.

Read on for picks on every Week 7 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The season record now stands at 46-44-2.

Plays (12-13-3)

San Francisco 49ers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs San Francisco’s defense was significantly weakened in last week’s 28-14 loss at Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites but should get back some of the injured players for its return home after two weeks on the East Coast this week. The 49ers’ defense might be the NFL’s best at full strength, and one of the rare units capable of consistently frustrating Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Arizona Cardinals -2 vs. New Orleans Saints It doesn’t appear that the Saints will cut very deep into their lengthy injury report on a short week going into Thursday Night Football, and they’re unbettable until they get healthier. Arizona, meanwhile, should get a boost in the department with the return of suspended receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

Green Bay Packers -4.5 at Washington Commanders The Commanders are giving up 7 yards per pass attempt despite having faced an overall uninspiring slate of opposing quarterbacks. This might be the last chance to trust back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers to get onto track with his young, struggling set of receivers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New York Giants Jacksonville, with a +24 point differential despite a 2-4 straight-up record, has been perhaps the unluckiest team in the NFL. The Giants have been almost surely the luckiest. At some point, those fates should even out.

Leans (17-20)

Detroit Lions +7 at Dallas Cowboys Holding out hope that this number gets to 7.5, which would elevate this pick to a play on the Lions. These two teams rate closer than expected by more advanced measures like expected points added per play largely because of the way the Lions’ offense was rolling to start the season — a clip they could inch back towards off a bye week.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons Secondary was one of the Falcons’ biggest strengths coming into the season, but they’re now dealing with a cluster injury as both starting cornerbacks, A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward, will likely miss this game. That makes for a big plus matchup for the Bengals with one of the NFL’s best receiving corps.

Denver Broncos pick’em vs. New York Jets This is a leap of faith in Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson gutting through an injury (a hamstring, this time around) to play. Wilson has been middling at best this season but he’s still a better option than backup Brett Rypien, and this spread is too low if he’s on the field.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens The Ravens seem incapable of playing anything but close games, a trend that’s usually exacerbated in divisional play. Only one of the four games played over the last two years in this series has been decided by more than 6 points.

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s best stories, but the offense started to tail off in last week’s 19-9 win over the Cardinals as 2.5-point favorites and it might time to start selling high. The number on this game coming into the season was Chargers -9, and although the home team hasn’t been great, they’re 4-2 straight-up and this might be too big of an adjustment.

Guesses (17-11)

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders It’s hard to imagine the Raiders losing this game given how much of a talent advantage they hold over the Texans. It’s even harder, however, to lay more than a touchdown in the NFL right now with as little as a gap as there appears to be between the vast majority of teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Miami Dolphins Ditto in the feeling about being gunshy to give a touchdown in the NFL right now unless it’s completely unavoidable. The Steelers’ secondary ranks in the NFL’s top 10 against deep passes per Football Outsiders — with former Miami cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick particularly having a big year — and shouldn’t be beaten easily by the Dolphins’ explosive passing game.

Chicago Bears +8 at New England Patriots With only a -0.1 net yard per play on the season, Chicago hasn’t played as poorly or been as uncompetitive as advertised. The Bears’ defense has been particularly stingy, keeping them within eight points of every game aside from a 27-10 loss to the Packers in Week 2.

Tennessee Titans -2 vs. Indianapolis Colts Despite last week’s 34-27 triumph over Jacksonville as 2-point favorites, Indianapolis was outgained by .5 yards per play and therefore didn’t do enough to pull themselves from near the bottom of the league in terms of efficiency. The Titans have played decently all season aside from one forgivable to 41-7 smackdown to the NFL’s best team, the Bills.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.5 at Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay’s offense has been painful to watch, but Carolina’s has somehow been even worse. Panthers quarterback PJ Walker threw for only 3.8 yards per attempt in his first start last week against the Rams, and he’ll face an even better pass defense this week in the Buccaneers.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or