NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the West Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 16, 2022 | 2:15 p.m.

Updated Thursday, March 17, 2022 | 4:13 p.m.

T-Mobile Arena locally hosted what may still stand as the best college basketball game of the season in late November.

The sequel might be coming to the Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif., in late March. Duke’s 84-81 win over Gonzaga as 8.5-point favorites in Las Vegas was hailed not only as a shining display of college basketball at the elite level but also a potential Final Four or national championship game preview.

Turns out Elite Eight is the best it can be. Profiled for large portions of the year as No. 1 seeds in separate regions, Gonzaga and Duke instead landed No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the same West bracket.

From a must-watch perspective, the clash between the two title contenders coming earlier than expected wouldn’t be that much of a downer. It would still hold high drama to pit the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed looking for the program's first national title against the biggest consistent powerhouse of the last 30 years in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final season.

Getting to that point might be the problem. Neither Gonzaga nor Duke got any favors with the teams slotted around them.

From a betting perspective, Gonzaga got the toughest No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed game placed next to it in Boise State vs. Memphis, respectively. Texas Tech rivals Tennessee in the South Region as the highest-rated No. 3 seed and could give Duke a major potential challenge in the Sweet 16.

That’s only if the Red Raiders get by a potential game with No. 6 seed Alabama, which has underperformed but was priced as high as a No. 2 seed early in the season when it beat Gonzaga in Seattle.

Put all the future odds to win the title together and the West Region winds up with the largest equity to ultimately cut down the nets in New Orleans of the four brackets.

Now, in fairness, that’s largely because Gonzaga — currently at +275 (i.e. risking $100 to win $270) — and to a lesser extent, Duke — 16-to-1 — are so high on the board. But take the top two seeds out of every region, and the West still rivals the South and East as the toughest region.

A second-part of the Gonzaga vs. Duke saga may be coming, but it’s no guarantee.

Read below for picks on every West Region game. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. They will be updated when more matchups become official after the First Four games. This is the final of a four-part series. Read part 1 here, part 2 here and part 3 here.

No. 4 seed Arkansas -5.5 vs. No. 13 seed Vermont The Catamounts are third in the nation in effective field goal percentage, 37^th in the nation three-point percentage and 16^th in turnover percentage. Those are all key areas when looking for a potential Cinderella candidate. And Arkansas’ ranks in the aforementioned categories? 219^th, 313st and 112nd, respectively. Play: Vermont +5.5.

No. 8 seed Boise State +2.5 vs. No. 9 seed Memphis After opening at as low as -1.5, the spread is now teetering on getting out of range with most shops offering Memphis -3. But the movement is justified with how well Memphis has played to recover from an early January swoon when it was severely beaten up. The Tigers tend to make a lot of mistakes, but when they’re clicking, they’re better than the Broncos all over the floor. Play: Memphis -2.5.

No. 5 seed Connecticut -7 vs. No. 12 seed New Mexico State A pronounced athleticism advantage should prevent the Huskies from blowing this game outright, but they have a tendency of going on droughts and not playing up to their potential. Those should be some of the areas where sharp New Mexico State coach Chris Jans can capitalize with a strong game plan. The Aggies play deliberately and smartly, two key aspects for identifying an underdog with some bite. Play: New Mexico State +7.

No. 7 seed Michigan State -1.5 vs. No. 10 seed Davidson No one ever wants to fade Michigan State coach Tom Izzo in March, but Davidson’s Bob McKillop is no slouch himself. Davidson was playing better than Michigan State down the stretch of the season and rates 28th in the nation in Shot Quality’s adjusted shot quality metric to the latter’s 58th, leaving doubt over which side should be favored here. Play: Davidson +1.5.

No. 2 seed Duke -18.5 vs. No. 15 seed Cal-State Fullerton The Blue Devils have failed to cover in four straight games, but none of those contests were against a team they can athletically and physically overwhelm like the Titans. The odds may not imply as much, but this region’s No. 2 vs. No. 15 game is as big of a mismatch as the No. 1 vs. No. 16 game. Lean: Duke -18.5.

No. 3 Texas Tech -15 vs. No. 14 seed Montana State This could turn into the round of 64 game with the fewest possessions considering each team’s preference for a slower pace. That means the Red Raiders will really need to be hitting a high percentage of their shots to cover this large of a spread, and that’s been a struggle for them all season long. Lean: Montana State +15.

No. 11 seed Notre Dame -1 vs. No. 11 seed Rutgers The Scarlet Knights get labeled as a defensively-minded team, but their statistical profile on that end isn’t as sterling as their reputation. Offensively, this is a mismatch with the Fighting Irish have several sharp-shooting 3-point threats including Blake Wesley and Dane Goodwin. Lean: Notre Dame -1.

No. 6 seed Alabama -4 vs. No. 11 seed Notre Dame The Crimson Tide shot 30.8% from the 3-point line this season, fourth-worst among all teams in the NCAA Tournament. The latter is still hard to believe because they have talented shooters. They're due some positive regression. Notre Dame similarly emphasizes some of the same principles as Alabama — namely ball movement and jump shooting — but the Crimson Tide have the better roster. Lean: Alabama -4.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga -23.5 vs. No. 16 seed Georgia State It’s a joke that Georgia State is a No. 16 seed, as it was much better than that when fully healthy. And the Panthers are fully healthy now. They still have microscopic to no chance of beating Gonzaga, but that shouldn’t be the case for their first-round opponent because they deserved better. The Panthers should be able to keep it relatively respectable. Guess: Georgia State +23.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or