NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the West Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 15, 2023 | 12:15 p.m.

Updated Thursday, March 16, 2023 | 10:36 a.m.

The final four of the West Region has a good chance of winding up stronger than the actual Final Four of the entire NCAA Tournament according to power ratings and the betting market.

If the goal of the tournament’s selection committee is to equally disperse the best teams among the four regions, it failed miserably this season. There are far too many bona fide national championship threats in the West Region.

The West wound up with the highest-rated No. 2 seed (UCLA), highest-rated No. 3 seed (Gonzaga), highest-rated No. 4 seed (UConn) and highest-rated No. 5 seed (St. Mary’s). That isn’t supposed to happen, even with the selection committee obviously using different criteria to rank teams than bettors and bookmakers.

The setup has made fans of No. 1 seed Kansas labeling the West as “the group of death” and whining that the defending national champions deserved better. And they might have a point.

The Jayhawks don’t have the analytical standing of their Western peers — they’re actually the worst No. 1 seed per the betting market — but many thought they were in line to snag the overall No. 1 seed before a Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship Game loss to Midwest Region No. 2 seed Texas.

Kansas set a record with 17 Quad 1 (games against the nation’s top 30) victories this season, and its reward was placement in arguably one of the toughest brackets ever assembled. At least the Jayhawks could get a trip to Las Vegas out of it — assuming they can manage No. 16 seed Howard and then either No. 8 seed Arkansas or No. 9 seed Illinois in the round of 32.

The latter will be no easy task as the Razorbacks and Illini fit with most of the rest of the region in being higher regarded by the betting market than the selection committee. They’ve both arguably underachieved but are more talented and better by predictive metrics than their seeds indicate.

Whomever survives this gauntlet over the first four days of the tournament is going to have earned it. This all guarantees that Las Vegas is going to make a grand debut as an NCAA Tournament host site for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

Barring major upheaval, the best games of the second weekend are going to be taking place at T-Mobile Arena.

Read below for picks on every first round game in the West Region. Picks are listed in rough order of confidence, and labeled in three separate confidence categories. This is the final installment of a four-part series with the other previews available here. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at the time of publication. Check back later for an additional pick after tonight’s First Four game and throughout the tournament for more coverage.

No. 5 seed St. Mary’s -4 vs. No. 12 seed VCU The Gaels’ power rating shouldn’t get dinged too badly for losing a pair of games to Gonzaga over the final week of the season, and yet that appears to be what’s happening. St. Mary’s would have been at least a 6-point favorite over VCU at virtually any other point of the season. Similarly, VCU doesn’t deserve this large of a bump from making a late regular-season and tournament run through an Atlantic 10 Conference that’s stuck in a down year. Play: St. Mary’s -4.

No. 7 seed Northwestern -1 vs. No. 10 seed Boise State The Broncos have put together an incredible year, but they’ve really overachieved given a middling roster construction. They may not be in a talent disadvantage to Northwestern in a typical year, but they are this season. The Wildcats’ Boo Buie is the biggest offensive game-changer on the court. And, on defense, Northwestern has been far stingier than Boise State. Play: Northwestern -1.

No. 1 seed Kansas -21.5 vs. No. 16 seed Howard The Bison are ranked 322^nd in the nation by ShotQuality’s team strength metric, which grades them as more like a team with a 14-17 regular-season record than their actual 19-12 mark. Howard also has the worst turnover rate of any team in the tournament, and Kansas’ defense has been better than its offense on the year especially in creating transition opportunities. The Jayhawks will be tested early in this bracket, but not this early. Play: Kansas -21.5.

No. 2 seed UCLA -18 vs. No. 15 UNC-Asheville UCLA played awfully well in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament despite losing to Arizona in the finals but still might require some adjustment period to playing without injured star Jaylen Clark, and now freshman big man Adem Bona. Without feeling much real danger of losing, Bruins coach Mick Cronin may use this game to tinker and figure out his new ideal rotations. The Bulldogs are one of the best shooting teams in the country, giving them a clear path to stay competitive. Lean: UNC-Asheville +18.

No. 3 seed Gonzaga -15 vs. No. 14 seed Grand Canyon Gonzaga’s offense has produced at a historic clip over the last month — reaching peaks it didn’t even meet the last two years with more heralded teams — and Grand Canyon’s mediocre defense doesn’t look like the unit to slow the trend down. Gonzaga’s defense is also questionable at best, and may ultimately prove its undoing, but as long as Grand Canyon doesn’t get scorching hot from 3-point range, the big favorite should roll. Lean: Gonzaga -15.

No. 6 seed TCU -6 vs. No. 11 seed Arizona State TCU should win, but this number might have moved too far after opening as low as -4.5. The Horned Frogs only pull away from opponents when they start cruising in transition, and the Sun Devils are athletic enough to prevent that from happening. Lean: Arizona State +6.

No. 4 seed Connecticut -9.5 vs. No. 13 seed Iona It’s a terrible draw for Iona, which would have a chance against every other No. 4 seed but runs the risk of getting completely outmuscled by UConn. That is, unless coach Rick Pitino can work his magic in what many expect to be his final appearance as Iona’s coach. The Gaels certainly have an advantage on the sidelines in Pitino against UConn’s Dan Hurley, who has never made the second weekend of the tournament as a coach. That edge might have to be enough to go off of, as the point spread otherwise looks correct. Guess: Iona +9.5.

No. 8 seed Arkansas -2 vs. No. 9 seed Illinois Arkansas has been one of the most popular bets of the round-of-64 according to data from multiple sports books, and yet this line has never extended beyond 2.5. That’s because there’s sharp money on the other side — and it makes sense. Arkansas isn’t the only dangerous team in this matchup; Illinois holds equal potential. While the Razorbacks have young stars in Nick Smith and Anthony Black, the Illini have more experienced difference-makers in Terrence Shannon and Matthew Mayer. Expect this game to come down to the final possessions. Guess: Illinois +2.

No. 11 seed Arizona State -2.5 vs. No. 11 seed UNR The Wolf Pack’s current trajectory, a three-game losing streak to teams at the bottom of the Mountain West Conference, is troubling but it was a more efficient team than Arizona State for most of the year. They’re certainly more lethal on offense, if they can find a way to tap back into their potential. Arizona State would have been the pick at the opening price of -1, but the market has moved too aggressively in the Sun Devils’ favor. Guess: UNR +2.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or