NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 26, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Without a single No. 1 seed having made the Elite Eight for the first time in history, the remaining field in this year’s NCAA Tournament is being regarded as one of the most improbable ever.

Saturday’s showdown between No. 3 seed Kansas State and No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic in the East Region final certainly supported that argument, but today’s games fall a little short of doing the same. The Final Four-bound Owls weren’t even listed with future odds to win the national championship at most sports books going into the season, while the now defeated Wildcats were 300-to-1 at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

All four of the teams competing for the last two Final Four spots today had much higher expectations coming into the season. The seeds of the South Region finalists may make them appear somewhat like long shots, but No. 5 seed San Diego State and No. 6 seed Creighton were widely rated as top 20 teams coming into the season.

The Blue Jays were as low as 20-to-1 in future markets around town, while the Aztecs were as low as 40-to-1.

And Midwest Region No. 2 seed Texas shouldn’t be a surprise at all as it was as low as 12-to-1. The Longhorns’ opponent, No. 4 seed Miami, was 80-to-1 in fairness but with a ceiling that many acknowledged as extremely high after a near $1 million NIL deal with star guard Nijel Pack, who transferred from Kansas State, became public.

So, yes, it’s a historic NCAA Tournament in a sense, but most of these teams always had championship potential.

Read below for handicaps of the two Elite Eight games on Saturday. Picks are labeled with one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas. The record for the tournament stands at 29-31-2 (10-6 on plays, 9-14-1 on leans and 10-11 on guesses.

No. 2 seed Texas -3.5 vs. No. 4 seed Miami Both the Longhorns and Hurricanes clearly deserved to win on Friday night; they probably just didn’t deserve to win going away in the fashion they managed. The score of neither Texas’ 83-71 victory over Xavier nor Miami’s 89-75 victory fully painted how dominant both teams were. They were hitting shots at an unsustainable rate. Maybe that makes the under 50 points a worthwhile bet tonight, but if it’s indeed that type of game, then it’s going to make defense all the more essential. And one team has a decisive edge on that end of the court — Texas. The Longhorns have been one of the nation’s best defensive teams all year; the Hurricanes have been incredibly mediocre. It’s a concern that Texas center Dylan Disu is unlikely to play, but he hadn’t really come on until the last month or so. The Longhorns were battling at the top of the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12, all year with relatively minimal contributions from Disu. They can survive a defensively-flawed Miami team without him. Play: Texas -3.5.

No. 5 seed San Diego State +1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Creighton As detailed in the Sweet 16 pick’em column, San Diego State was in a plus-matchup against Alabama. That doesn’t mean the Aztecs were a cinch to knock off the Crimson Tide but they were pretty likely to give them problems. They’re more evenly-matched overall with the Blue Jays but the stylistic edges should be minimized this time around. Creighton is a little less careless than Alabama, a little more experienced and a lot more versatile offensively. The Crimson Tide only cared to score in three ways all year — from beyond the arc, at the rim or in transition — and they were all areas where the Aztecs were strong defensively. I’m sitting on a San Diego State future to make the Final Four at 16-to-1 from early in the year, and as much as I’d love to let it ride, I’m leaning towards hedging because of the matchup. Lean: Creighton -1.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or