Weekend wagers: A supersized, post-NFL return with 10 bets on 10 sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Feb. 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Football season couldn’t have gone better for the weekend betting column.

Despite pronounced early-season struggles, a trio of futures came through to propel the weekly Sunday Sweats column to $7,487.41 in profit off a 77-84 record for the year. That’s far and away a record amount of profit.

I was in position to narrowly eclipse the finishes from the first two years but the Philadelphia Eagles winning the NFC, Patrick Mahomes earning NFL MVP and Nick Bosa claiming NFL Defensive Player of the Year resulted in more than a $5,000 bonus.

But enough basking in glory. It’s time to do it again.

The weekend betting column has always reset after football season, and that’s not going to change for 2023. The intention of handicapping the biggest events, and the widest-possible array of sports, will also remain so I’m going to kick it off with another record.

It’s time to get the money flowing again with 10 bets on 10 different sports.

Read on for this week’s weekend wagers. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page for another year.

Golf (0-0, $0): Tyler Duncan +110 vs. Eric Cole head-to-head in third round of Honda Classic (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $220

Cole has been a feel-good story this week at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. a short drive from his hometown in Delray Beach. It’s the perfect place for him to be in contention — three strokes back of the lead at -7 — for the first time since grinding his way up to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour. But it’s unlikely to last, and the close-to-home narrative isn’t near a good enough reason for him to be favored over a more proven and accomplished golfer like Duncan. The 34-year-old veteran Duncan is no Jon Rahm himself, but he’s a one-time PGA Tour winner with a profile that fits with the Honda Classic. Duncan is currently one stroke back of Cole but should have a better outlook in the weekend.

College basketball (0-0, $0): Utah +2.5 vs. USC (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

The Huntsman Center is a tough place to play, especially after another road game at elevation against Colorado two nights ago for USC. The Trojans are clicking, having won and covered three straight, but none of the teams they faced in the span are as sharp as the Utes. Utah coach Craig Smith will have a plan to slow the explosive USC backcourt. The Utes had struggled to adjust without injured skilled wing Gabe Madsen in recent weeks, but it all seemed to come together in the second half of a game against UCLA on Thursday. Utah still lost 78-71 but cut the UCLA lead to as low as two points at one point. USC should give it a better chance at a victory.

NHL (0-0, $0): Calgary Flames +120 at Colorado Avalanche (BetMGM)

$200 to win $240

Colorado has been overvalued for most of the season off of its Stanley Cup Final victory a year ago. Granted, Calgary has been overvalued to an even greater degree. But the Flames aren’t the team playing on back-to-back nights here, and they aren’t the team expected to be again without arguably their best player. The Avalanche’s Cale Makar has been out with a concussion, and it’s unlikely he’s back tonight. Colorado will also be starting its worse goaltender, Pavel Francouz, after Alexander Georgiev was scheduled to be in the crease on Friday at Winnipeg. The Avalanche are too big of a favorite.

NBA (0-0, $0): Orlando Magic -2.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

The Pacers gave an all-out effort in their first game back from the All-Star Break, taking the NBA-leading Celtics to overtime in a 142-138 loss. That performance has apparently drowned out the diminishing returns of their quality for the rest of the month and thrown the betting market out of whack. Orlando was trending better than Indiana pre-All Star break, and this line implies the Magic are the worse team with not even a full adjustment for home-court advantage. I make the Magic a 4-point favorite, meaning this is a bet at less than -3.     

XFL (0-0, $0): Vegas Vipers -3 vs. D.C. Defenders (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

How about some home cookin’ at Cashman Field? Aside from a couple catastrophic turnovers returned for touchdowns last week, the Vipers were better than the Arlington Renegades despite a 22-20 loss in their season opener. They gained 4.8 yards per play, nearly a half-yard better than the offensively-challenged Defenders managed in a fortunate 22-18 win over the Seattle Sea Dragons. D.C. looks like it has one of the league’s best defenses, but Vegas’ strong offense should be able to overcome it — especially considering the former's exhaustive travel schedule. D.C. went from playing on the East Coast seven days ago to practicing in Arlington during the week to out to the Pacific Time Zone for this game. It’s advantage Vegas in too many areas.

MLS (0-0, $0): Austin FC -170 vs. St. Louis City (Boyd Sports)

$340 to win $200

It’s not going to be a Vegas Golden Knights’ Year 1 situation with the MLS’s new expansion team this season. St. Louis is not set up to be competitive. MLS teams have a history of struggles in their first year, and St. Louis should fit with the trend. Austin meanwhile reached the Western Conference Finals a year ago with one of the best homefield advantages in the league. This line is above -200 elsewhere, and that’s where it should be.

UFC (0-0, $0): Augusto Sakai -125 vs. Don’Tale Mayes at UFC Fight Night (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

The once highly-touted Brazilian heavyweight Sakai has lost four straight but consider the competition. He’s taken on some of the division’s best, all of whom would be a considerable favorite over Mayes. This should be a terrific spot for him to get back on track against a tough-but-not-all-that-dangerous Mayes. Sakai figures to be at a wrestling disadvantage but he’s too big and strong to be held down by Mayes for 15 minutes. More than likely, Sakai catches him with a punch and scores the type of knockout he was piling up at the start of his UFC career.

NASCAR (0-0, $0): Daniel Suarez -110 vs. Bubba Wallace head-to-head in Pala Casino 400 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

This would be a fair line at many, if not most, NASCAR venues on the schedule this year — just not Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif. It’s a high tire-wear track, a type of race in which Suarez has excelled and Wallace has not. Suarez (40-to-1 outright) probably doesn’t have the speed to challenge for a victory, but he should have the ability to finish better than Wallace (30-to-1).  

MLB (0-0, $0): Atlanta Braves to win the World Series at 10-to-1 and the National League at 5-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$300 to win $3,00 & $300 to win $1,500

Full disclosure: I’m a diehard Braves’ fan, but even setting that aside, I don’t see a team that looks better than them on paper going into the upcoming Major League Baseball season. Especially not in the National League. The Dodgers are always formidable but lost quite a bit of talent this offseason and should take a minor step back. The Mets will again be a trendy pick but the Braves spotted them a giant lead in the National League East last year and they still ended up getting caught. At the worst, the Braves are in the same tier as the Dodgers, Mets, defending champion Houston Astros and New York Yankees. These future prices tab them as a step below and that’s simply incorrect based on their sheer talent level alone.

NFL (0-0, $0): Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 (BetMGM)

$300 to win $2,700

I’m already on record picking the Bills to win their first Super Bowl next year in Las Vegas. This bet is just consummating the prediction. To summarize my earlier position: Buffalo was the best team in the NFL for a large stretch of this season and was only weakened by a rash of high-profile injuries. With a little better injury luck next season, they should be the class of the league. Buffalo is as low as 6-to-1 to win the Super Bowl elsewhere, and that price makes more sense. It might be a new season for Weekend Wagers, but there’s truly no real offseason as far as betting football.  

Weekend betting column year to date: 0-0, $0

Weekend betting column all-time: 489-497-5, $18,126.92 

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Luka Doncic to win NBA MVP at 4-to-1 ($450 to win $1,800); Boston Celtics to win Atlantic Division at -220 ($660 to win $300); Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or