Sunday Sweats: Seven slick bets to add to your NFL Week 15 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The once-in-a-lifetime chance to bet on regular-season NFL games and World Cup matches concurrently is coming to an end this weekend.

It’s been a fun, though not entirely successful, foray into soccer for Sunday Sweats. Picks in the column on a match-by-match basis have actually done quite well with a 3-1 tally, but a number of losing future positions means the World Cup will likely be a loss overall.

At least the event is going out on a high with a straight pick’em championship meeting between powers Argentina and France. Both countries are -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100) to lift the country at sports books around the valley.

I wanted to back one of them for the column’s World Cup finale, but couldn’t decide whom I liked. Defending-champion France was my first reaction, and it probably does have an overall talent advantage, but Argentina has been on a better form and outplayed everyone over the last month in Qatar.

It’s a tough call. Both teams may neutralize each other so for the final World Cup bet, I’ll take Draw at +200 ($100 to win $200) on the 90 minute plus injury time line at Caesars/William Hill). To be transparent, this isn’t a wager where I believe there’s a big edge. It’s more of action-for-the-sake-of-action bet.

I typically try to stray from that kind of gambling in Sunday Sweats but will make a special exception on this occasion. I’ll likely never get a chance to bet on the World Cup and NFL regular season on the same day ever again after all.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.

Tasty Total (9-7, $310): Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills under 44 points (Wynn)

$165 to win $150

Tonight’s weather forecast just keeps getting worse for Orchard Park, N.Y., with projections for both snow and wind now increased. That makes it difficult to see this AFC West showdown turning into a shootout. This total feels like it should be closer to 40 than hanging around NFL average. Both the Dolphins and Bills have above-average offenses, but neither unit figures to be at its best in this game. Most sports books at least have the total at 43.5, but a couple 44s are still available. This is the second total play of the week as I locked in over 47 in the Titans at Chargers game (a number that’s unfortunately since moved in the opposite direction) in the pick’em.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (8-7, $140): New York Jets +7 & Baltimore Ravens +9 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$180 to win $150

There are no teasers on the board this week with positive expected value, but this is the closest one. Both should be low-scoring games and look unlikely to feature a touchdown or greater margin of victory. The Jets took a hit with the announcement that Zach Wilson was in for the concussed Mike White at quarterback, but their defense is still more than enough to turn this into an ugly game of their liking. Detroit won’t score much on a cold, windy day at MetLife Stadium. Cleveland’s offense might be in a similar situation at home against Baltimore considering how rusty it’s looked the last two weeks since the return of quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Browns might come out on top, but this should be more like a field goal game.

Moneyline Parlay (4-10, -$495.50): Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders & Los Angeles Chargers at +433 (Circa Sports)

$100 to win $432.64

A parlay tying together all of the underwhelming AFC West teams playing at home in perceived close games on Sunday. What could go wrong? A lot, obviously. The theme was unintentional, to be clear, but the trio of moneylines all looked short and among the best options on the board. Circa, as usual, had the best price for combining them. The Raiders and Broncos have taken money throughout the week over the Patriots and Cardinals, respectively, and it makes sense given they’re both healthier. The Chargers are in a better injury situation than the Titans too but the line is slightly teetering the other way. That doesn’t make much sense to me, but I won’t let it deter my handicap. The AFC West hasn’t lived up to expectations this year but hopefully the bridesmaid teams to the Kansas City Chiefs flash some ability this weekend.

Player Prop (14-14, -$46): Daniel Jones Anytime Touchdown at +310 (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $310

The Giants’ quarterback has five rushing touchdowns on the year, but it feels like he should have a few more. New York routinely looks towards him to pick up yards with his feet in critical situations. He had 12 carries for 71 yards in a 20-20 tie with Washington two weeks ago, but didn’t find the end zone. The chances that he does this time around are a little better than the roughly 24% this line implies. Saquon Barkley is the most likely Giant to score a touchdown on Sunday Night Football but Jones is a close second.

Future Finding (3-9, $610): Micah Parsons to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at -110 (Boyd Sports)

$275 to win $250

This award is going to either Parsons or Nick Bosa. I’ve already got a large position on Bosa, so why not bet some back on Parsons to ensure profit? Or, in this case, to at least prevent any loss. I came to that conclusion after consulting the free Unabated hedge calculator, which I’m trusting to make the ideal bet size. I input a 50/50 chance that Parsons win, and used the total profit in the history of this column — $12,137.81 — as bankroll size. I’m still gambling that Bosa can surpass Parsons for a much larger payout but at least if the near season-long leader prevails, I’m covered to not take a loss.

Non-football Play (11-6, $980): New York Islanders +140 at Vegas Golden Knights (Wynn)

$150 to win $210

For the second straight week, I’m betting against the home team. It gives me no joy to do so, but it’s a reflection of where the Golden Knights stand currently. Bookmakers haven’t yet caught up to how beaten-up they are, which is why money has come in against Vegas virtually every night it plays the last couple weeks. It should happen again here against a tough, defensively-minded Islanders’ team even though they’re on a back-to-back after a Friday night game in Arizona. That means Vegas gets to avoid Vezina frontrunner Ilya Sorokin in net but Semyon Varlamov is one of the better backups in the league. He should give the Islanders enough to have a chance to win at T-Mobile Arena.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 49-54, $1,498.50

Weekend betting column year to date: 119-136-1, $5,292.08

Weekend betting column all-time: 461-467-5, $12,137.81

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Olivier Giroud to win World Cup Golden Boot at 80-to-1 ($20 to win $1,600); Nick Chubb to win NFL rushing title at 5-to-1 ($240 to win $1,200); Derrick Henry to win NFL rushing title at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or