NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 19, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Deciding how to weigh recent performance in comparison to season-long data is a constant challenge for sports bettors.

That’s especially true for the NCAA Tournament, and it’s especially true for Saturday’s slate of eight round-of-32 matchups. Handicapping a number of the games today comes down to whether a bettor trusts the current trajectory or the larger sample.

No matter how passionate those on both sides of the debate can become, there’s no steadfast right answer. It comes down to the individual bettor to decide how to proceed.

That’s what I’m going to try to continue to do below as the series picking every game of the NCAA Tournament continues. I’m off to a strong start, going 22-12 (7-1 on plays, 8-6 on leans and 7-5 on guesses) through the round of 64.

Read below for the next set of picks on Saturday’s games. Picks are labeled with one of three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 4 seed Providence -3 vs. No. 12 seed Richmond With all due respect to South Dakota State, it doesn’t have as strong of personnel as Richmond. So how did endless hype on the Jackrabbits drop their price to as low as +1.5 against the Friars but the Spiders are getting 1.5 points more? This is closer to a pick’em. Play: Richmond +3.

No. 4 seed Arkansas -6.5 vs. No. 12 seed New Mexico State Timmy Allen exploded for 37 points and the Aggies hit 11 of 17 shots from the beyond the 3-point line in their upset over Connecticut as 6-point favorites. That should be tough to duplicate, especially against one of college basketball’s top strategists in Arkansas coach Eric Musselman scheming against a repeat. Play: Arkansas -6.5.

No. 3 seed Tennessee -6 vs. No. 11 seed Michigan At the beginning of the season, this number would have been shifted nine points in Michigan’s direction. That doesn’t mean everything, but it means something as a sign of how close these teams are from a strictly roster perspective. The Wolverines could also be bolstered by the return of point guard DeVante’ Jones, who rejoined the team Friday and is considered a game-time decision. If he plays, this spread will drop. Play: Michigan +6.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga -10 vs. No. 9 seed Memphis Gonzaga’s first-half struggles against a capable No. 16 seed Georgia State further clouded the gap between it and the rest of the tournament field. But make no mistake: It still exists. This looks like a good spot for it to shine through because as well as Memphis has played over the last month-and-a-half, it’s still highly error-prone and undisciplined. Lean: Gonzaga -10.

No. 4 seed UCLA -3 vs. No. 5 seed St. Mary’s Like Akron, St. Mary’s can slow down the game and maximize possessions to frustrate UCLA. Unlike Akron, St. Mary’s has the players to do it efficiently for 40 straight minutes. Lean: St. Mary’s +3.

No. 1 seed Kansas -11.5 vs. No. 9 seed Creighton The Blue Jays are barely holding it together after losing yet another starter in their comeback overtime against San Diego State in the round of 64. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are rounding into form with preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Remy Martin finally healthy and finding his role. Lean: Kansas -11.5.

No. 7 seed Murray State -9 vs. No. 15 seed St. Peter’s Taking the season as a whole, Murray State more than deserves to be laying more than double digits against Saint Peter’s. But the Peacocks are on a roll — even before their historic upset over Kentucky as closing 18-point underdogs — and arguably should have earned another point or two of respect from the betting market. Guess: St. Peter’s +9.

No. 1 seed Baylor -5.5 vs. No. 8 seed North Carolina The Tar Heels are pretty close to evenly matched with the Bears if they play up to their potential. Problem is, consistently playing up to their potential has been elusive all season. But North Carolina has found its rhythm frequently enough lately, including in a 95-63 blowout first-round win over Marquette, to entertain taking them at what otherwise looks like a fair price. Guess: North Carolina +5.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or