NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 20, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The biggest sports weekend of the betting calendar bows out today. It won’t do so with a whimper.

The final slate of NCAA Tournament games for the capacity crowds at watch parties around town is a doozy. There’s not a double-digit spread in sight.

This year’s tournament has been a good one in terms of suspenseful betting decisions sending sports books into frenzies, and Sunday’s action should be no different. Let’s just hope to get on the right side of most of those tight finishes.

That wasn't the case Saturday, as I had my first bad day of the tournament and now sit at 25-17 (8-3 on plays, 8-9 on leans and 9-5 on guesses) picking every NCAA Tournament game.

Read below for the next set of picks on Sunday’s games. Picks are labeled with one of three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 2 seed Villanova -5.5 vs. No. 7 Ohio State The Buckeyes have at least one luxury that the Wildcats lack: A veteran scorer capable of taking over any game in E.J. Liddell. The advantage of having someone like Liddell might be one reason contributing to Ohio State appearing to be undervalued in the tournament, as this line should be on the other side of the key number of 5. Play: Ohio State +5.5.

No. 3 seed Texas Tech -7.5 vs. No. 11 seed Notre Dame Texas Tech is a total pain to play under normal circumstances considering it’s the top-rated team in the nation in defensive efficiency, and the situation is even further stacked against Notre Dame here. The Irish haven’t faced as much as a top-50 defensive team since early December and are now playing their third game in the last five days. Play: Texas Tech -7.5.

No. 4 seed Illinois +4.5 vs. No. 5 seed Houston This game is going to be slow, defensive-minded and all-around grisly. That makes the points more valuable, as it looks highly likely that the final margin will be a single possession. Houston is slightly better overall, but if Illinois can just limit its recurring turnover problem, then the Illini are evenly-matched. Lean: Illinois +4.5.

No. 2 seed Duke -6.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan State This is not a vintage Michigan State in terms of defensive efficiency, especially not near the basket. That looms as a major problem against Duke, which hasn’t been playing well but should be able to outmuscle Michigan State. Lean: Duke -6.5.

No. 1 seed Arizona -9.5 vs. No. 9 seed TCU The Horned Frogs aren’t just bothering opponents with their defense lately; they’re dismantling them. It seems like the betting market hasn’t totally caught up to the ascent considering TCU is 8-2 against the spread over its last 10 games. Lean: TCU +9.5.

No. 3 seed Wisconsin -4.5 vs. No. 11 seed Iowa State The market is steadily moving against the Cyclones, which seems like a sign of disrespect towards their defense. Unlike several recent opponents, even inside the Big 10, Iowa State has plenty of wing stoppers to throw on Wisconsin star Johnny Davis and keep this close. Guess: Iowa State +4.5.

No. 3 seed Purdue -3.5 vs. No. 6 seed Texas This looks like a coinflip on paper, but Purdue holds an ultimate trump card in its ability to explode on offense and make shots from virtually anywhere on the court. If the Boilermakers get into their rhythm — admittedly a big if — then the Longhorns shouldn’t be able to keep up. Guess: Purdue -3.5.

No. 2 Auburn -7.5 vs. No. 10 seed Miami Auburn big men Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler should have their way with a mediocre Miami frontcourt. The Tigers should be able to pile on points in the paint and gobble up every rebound, an advantage that may end up making this spread look short. Guess: Auburn -7.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or