NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the East Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, March 20, 2024 | noon

Note: For the 12th straight time dating back to 2012, Talking Points will be handicapping every NCAA Tournament game against the spread.  This is the final entry of a four-part series previewing all the initial regions and games.

Connecticut didn’t just prove victorious in last year’s NCAA Tournament; it pulverized the rest of the competition.

It will always look preposterous in hindsight that the Huskies had a No. 4 seed attached to their name ahead of one of the most dominant runs in the event’s history — especially from a betting perspective. Connecticut went 6-0 against the spread and covered by an average of 13 points per game in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

The only champion of the last 20 years that was better in the sports book during the tournament was 2016 Villanova, which also went 6-0 against the spread but covered by an average of 16.5 points per game. But the Wildcats had the benefit of being an underdog in a couple games that year and an outlier in the form of a 44-point blowout victory over Oklahoma to skew the numbers.

Ths Huskies were expected to win every game last year, and they did so with relative ease — so much so that their average cover margin is probably muted because of so many endgame situations where they were just preserving leads.

They pulled it all off despite being put in the toughest region on Selection Sunday — the same handicap they’ll have to overcome this year. It’s too early to say this year’s Connecticut team is better than last year’s national championship version but it’s certainly been more consistent.

The Huskies were the only reasonable choice for the overall No. 1 seed. They just didn’t get the region they deserved to go with the distinction as, for the second straight year, they’re squarely in the middle of the toughest set of teams.

This same column a year ago read, “If the goal of the tournament’s selection committee is to equally disperse the best teams among the four regions, it failed miserably,” in regard to Connecticut’s region. The column then pointed out that the 2023 West had the betting market’s top-rated No. 2 seed (UCLA), top-rated No. 3 seed (Gonzaga), top-rated No. 4 seed (Connecticut) and top-rated No. 5 seed (St. Mary’s).

Well, this year’s East Region has the top-rated No. 1 seed (Connecticut), top-rated No. 3 seed (Illinois), top-rated No. 4 seed (Auburn) and top-rated No. 6 seed (BYU).

And while No. 2 seed Iowa State grades out a cut below West counterpart Arizona and Midwest counterpart Tennessee, it’s arguably playing better than anyone in the nation sans Connecticut. The Cyclones won the Big 12 tournament with three victories by an average of 17.6 points per game.  

The Huskies won’t have to beat all these teams, of course, but there’s a good chance they’ll have to survive two of them just to reach the Final Four. That’s how last year played out, when a 70-55 second-round victory over St. Mary’s as 3-point favorites was their most suspenseful game of the tournament.

If there’s a Connecticut this year that can blow through the tournament despite a non-premium seed, it looks like Auburn. The Tigers would more accurately be slotted as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed by the betting market despite gamblers having a tough time accurately pricing them all year.

Auburn obliterated opponents in Connecticut-like fashion with one of the best power-conference against the spread records in the nation at 20-10-1. That narrowly edges Connecticut’s 20-11 against the spread mark this year.

The East’s potential Sweet 16 matchups of UConn vs. Auburn or No. 5 seed San Diego State (a rematch of last year’s title game) and Iowa State vs. Illinois or BYU might be championship material in their own right.

“The final four of the West Region has a good chance of winding up stronger than the actual Final Four of the entire NCAA Tournament,” last year’s preview column read. That turned out to be accurate, and history may repeat this year in the East Region.

If Connecticut emerges as the first repeat champions in 17 years since Florida in 2006 and 2007, it’s really going to have earned it.  

Read below for picks against the spread on every East Region game, separated in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time.

No. 5 seed San Diego State -6.5 vs. No. 12 seed UAB, over/under: 139.5. San Diego State frontcourt star Jaedon LeDee should cause all sorts of problems for a mediocre-at-best UAB defense. The Aztecs meanwhile have the best defense the Blazers have encountered all year by far. UAB is a young team with a promising future but is getting undue credit for an American Athletic Conference tournament coup considering the bracket broke in a dream fashion to enable its run as 25-to-1 underdogs. Play: San Diego State -6.5.

No. 2 seed Iowa State -16.5 vs. No. 15 seed South Dakota State, over/under: 135.5. Don’t be fooled by the destruction the Cyclones left in their wake at every path of the Big 12 tournament: This isn’t a team set up to blow out many opponents. Iowa State’s  market rating is now at an all-time high, which could signal an opportunity to sell. South Dakota State has consistently let down its backers in the NCAA Tournament but it still fits the profile as a team that could make some noise with its offensive spacing and high-effort defense. Play: South Dakota State +16.5.

No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic -3 vs. No. 9 seed Northwestern, over/under: 141. Florida Atlantic has been consistently underwhelming since the start of conference play, going 7-13 against the spread this calendar year. Northwestern has been a consistent nuisance to perceived more talented opponents, going 12-8 against the spread in the same span. What’s to keep the trend from persisting in the NCAA Tournament? Florida Atlantic has the better roster, but Northwestern has the best player in veteran guard Boo Buie. This should be closer to a pick’em game, as Florida Atlantic’s Final Four run from last year has continually added a premium to its rating. Play: Northwestern +3.

No. 3 seed Illinois -12 vs. No. 14 seed Morehead State, over/under: 148.5. Morehead State hits virtually all the marks as a potential sleeper mid-major team: It plays deliberate offense, shoots a lot of 3-pointers (often well) and has the length not to get overwhelmed defensively. Illinois’ offense has been eye-catching as the season has progressed, but it’s basically a wash with the regression of its defense. Morehead State has little to no depth, but that’s typically overvalued in the tournament anyway. As long as the Eagles stay out of foul trouble, they should hang around. Play: Morehead State +12.

No. 1 seed Connecticut -26 vs. No. 16 seed Stetson, over/under: 145.5. The Huskies are every bit the wrecking ball they’re advertised to be. A strong reason is a must to bet against them. Stetson, which is a defensive sieve and far outperformed its statistical profile to win the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament, can’t possibly offer any strong reason. Lean: Connecticut -26.

No. 6 seed BYU -9.5 vs. No. 11 seed Duquense, over/under: 142. Yes, this is probably the most lopsided No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 seed game in NCAA Tournament history on paper but the spread accurately reflects as much. It might have even gone too far after the Cougars opened as low as a 6.5-point favorite. A three-point move might be a little too much considering Duquense is talented, hitting its stride and will be pushing to send off coach Keith Dambrot, who’s retiring after the season, the right way. Guess: Duquense +9.5.

No. 4 seed Auburn -12.5 vs. No. 13 seed Yale, over/under: 141. There’s a reason why the Ivy League tournament champion seems to give its first-round opponents fits, if not upset them outright, many years. The teams play unique styles that their major-conference foes don’t see much during the year. This is especially true with Yale, which looks more poised for success than some of their forerunners with dynamic 7-footer Danny Wolf leading the way. Guess: Yale +12.5.

No. 7 seed Washington State +1.5 vs. No. 10 seed Drake, over/under: 138. Despite coming from a smaller conference, Drake might have the more talented roster in this matchup. The Cougars definitely don’t have a gamebreaker on the level of Bulldogs swingman Tucker DeVries. It also seems like a stroke of good fortune that Drake gets to play a short drive from its Des Moines, Iowa, campus in Omaha, Neb. Drake would have at least been a lean at the opening price of Washington State -1.5, but the line has since correctly moved into place. Guess: Drake -1.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or