Weekend wagers: Five bets on five sports including college football, NFL

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 27, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Forget the future for a minute.

I know that sounds hypocritical coming for me after writing up more than a dozen future bets in both college football and the NFL over the last week but now I’m future-d out. Today is a big day on the sports betting calendar with the return of college football, so let’s live in the present.

Let’s go back to the original premise of the Weekend Wagers column — placing five bets on five different sports. There are more than enough options this weekend to try to turn a profit.

I fell just short a week ago with a 2-2 record, though should have easily boosted the bottom line if I followed my own advice. I suggested betting Kyle Larson to win NASCAR’s Watkins-Glen race in the write-up for a matchup I decided to place instead.

That happens in sports betting. Leaving money on the table is a constant annoyance, one I’ll try to avoid with this set of five bets that will all be concluded by Sunday event.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (7-9-2, $5,622.50): Joaquin Niemann -122 vs. Max Homa head-to-head in third round of Tour Championship (Circa Sports)

$183 to win $150

Homa put up the low round of the week so far on Friday with an 8-under, and this line seems like it's overreacting to that. He was 1-over par on Thursday in the opening round. Homa shot up the leaderboard in a way that's unlikely to repeat as he sunk virtually every putt. Niemann didn't have a bad day himself, dropping back to 3-under par on Friday after starting with a 6-under par round on Thursday, and Atlanta's East Lake Golf Club is more suited towards the young Chilean's game. Niemann is better off the tee than Homa, and that's the most predictive stat for this tournament. I bet against Niemann last week and banked a win, but now it's time to switch sides. This is a better spot for him.

College football (0-0, $0): Northwestern running back Evan Hull under 56.5 rushing yards at -110 (Boyd Sports)

$110 to win $100

I won’t purport to be a college football prop betting specialist, but the idea of dabbling further into the markets this year is appealing. I’ve already handicapped every side and placed two totals on the Week 0 slate, so this pick is more just an effort to switch it up. Despite Northwestern taking some money recently in this spot — the spread touched Nebraska -14 before shooting down to as low as -10.5 — it’s still most likely it will be playing from behind. That means running the ball with less frequency. Nebraska also defended the run well last year, and has much of its front seven back on defense. It’s always best to look at unders first with props, as there’s an inherent bias in the overs, and this might be the best one offered locally this morning.

MLB (16-7, $1,579): Atlanta Braves +105 at St. Louis Cardinals (Wynn)

$200 to win $210

Both starters in this game, Atlanta’s Charlie Morton and St. Louis’ Jordan Montgomery, are pitching as well as they have all season recently. But the former’s positive streak looks more in line with his usual expectation, and therefore, more sustainable. Montgomery has looked like Jacob deGrom ever since getting traded from the Yankees to the Cardinals. He’s a very good pitcher, but he’s not that good of a pitcher. As much as fun as it is to poke fun at the Yankees for what already looks like a terrible swap for injured outfielder Harrison Bader in hindsight, Montgomery’s tear seems more random than anything. Piecing together four unhittable starts is the type of thing that can happen for a talented pitcher over a season-long sample. Atlanta presents one of the toughest lineups he’s faced all year, so today might be when his success starts to slow.

NFL (0-0, $0): Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Indianapolis Colts in preseason Week 3 (BetMGM)

$165 to win $150

Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles said everyone on the roster who’s healthy will play against Indianapolis. Colts coach Frank Reich said “most” of his team will play against the Buccaneers. Advantage Tampa Bay. And it’s not like the Buccaneers didn’t already have an advantage anyway, with the more talented roster. Training camp hasn’t been kind to them — mostly due to cluster injuries along the offensive line but also the overblown Tom Brady vacation saga — but they’re still a Super Bowl contender. They also have better depth than they’re usually given credit for, as their backups are at worst a wash with the Colts’ second- and third-stringers. Given both the situation and personnel, Tampa Bay should be closer to a pick’em against Indianapolis.

NASCAR (10-9, $1,200): Erik Jones even money vs. Daniel Suarez in Coke Zero 400 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $250

This is about as confident as you’ll ever find me betting a matchup at a drafting track like Daytona. Betting superspeedway races is notoriously fickle, as I point out every time NASCAR comes around Daytona and Talladega, but this just seems improperly priced. Jones has been one of the better superspeedway drivers for several years at this point, while it’s Suarez’s inarguable weak spot as a driver. Yes, Suarez is in the better equipment and has put together the much stronger year but that doesn’t matter much at Daytona. History at these types of tracks is much more predictive, and only a handful of elites can compete with Jones in that regard. A crash could render all this moot, but there’s no way Jones’ true odds to beat Suarez are only 50% on Sunday.

Weekend wagers year to date: 63-69-1, $5,853.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 405-399,4, $11,789.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or