NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s Elite 8

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 27, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The betting odds were about 533-to-1 against St. Peter’s becoming the first team in NCAA Tournament history to reach the Elite 8 as a No. 15 seed.

No sports books posted “odds to reach the Elite 8” lines, at least not in Las Vegas, but that’s the combined price of the Peacocks’ moneyline in each of their first three games — upsets of No. 2 seed Kentucky, No. 7 seed Murray State and No. 3 seed Purdue. The Peacocks face No. 8 seed North Carolina in the last quarterfinal game of the year this afternoon for the right to reach the Final Four next week in New Orleans.

If they continue their historic tear, they’d cash on a 1,000-to-1 price to win the South Region that no one placed a bet on according to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Executive Director Jay Kornegay.

But that payout pales in comparison to if someone had taken a rollover moneyline parlay on the Peacocks. If a bettor started with $100 and bet the winnings on St. Peter’s every game of the tournament, they’d be risking around $53,000 today to win close to $175,000.

No one did that, of course, which is why the hypothetical moneyline parlay examples are typically foolish to cite. But the Peacocks’ run is so unprecedented that it called for it.  

Sports books help illustrate just how unlikely their Elite 8 berth is. Let’s handicap if they can pull off one more, and finish off the last two games before the Final Four after going 32-28 against the spread (10-6 on plays, 11-12 on leans and 11-10 on guesses) picking every tournament game so far.

Read below for picks on today’s pair of Elite 8 games. Picks are labeled with one of three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 8 seed North Carolina -8 vs. No. 15 seed St. Peter’s Forget that No. 8 seed attached to the Tar Heels. Since the start of the tournament, they’ve been the best team in the nation per college basketball statistician Bart Torvik’s numbers. In fairness, St. Peter’s has a similar argument and has even further eclipsed its No. 15 seed. The Peacocks were sixth-best team of the tournament heading into the Elite 8 — ahead of Duke and Arkansas. But that’s still a big enough discrepancy to merit this spread.

And we’re not confined to using recent results to handicap this game anyway. Incorporate everything – including priors from the preseason – and this spread still looks a little short. North Carolina struggled most of the year, but it was apparent it had the talent to go on the run it’s currently on. No one saw this coming from St. Peter’s, which means it’s likely going to catch up to them eventually. It’s no fun to bet against the Peacocks but this is still a team that rates 196^th in the nation in adjusted shot quality, even after a major rise. North Carolina wouldn’t be the best team St. Peter’s has beaten — both Kentucky and Purdue have been far better on the season a whole — but it’s playing much better than anyone it’s beaten to this point. Play: North Carolina -8.

No. 1 seed Kansas -6.5 vs. No. 10 seed Miami Out of three future bets I had alive coming into the Final Four, Kansas at 14-to-1 is the only one that remains. I share that information because it’s hard not to let that pre-existing position color how I view this game. It’s a short enough price, and I sunk enough money into the market on other teams, that the Elite 8 is a little early for a straight-forward hedge. But a line of more than two possessions presents a pretty appealing arbitrage opportunity.

I might be tempted but wouldn't ultimately play the other side of the future if I didn’t think there was value, but I think there’s value here. Miami is in a groove, and the way it found that groove seems like a route that could cause Kansas problems. The Hurricanes’ experienced and shrewd set of guards have leveled up in the tournament, and perimeter defense has been a vulnerability all season for the Jayhawks. It’s been even worse lately with Remy Martin playing more minutes now that he’s healthy and contributing so heavily on offense. Kansas should win this game but it shouldn’t win by much — less than 6.5 hopefully so I can cash one bet and hold onto another. Play: Miami +6.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or