Sunday Sweats: Six bets to add to your NFL Week 2 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022 | 2:11 p.m.

Well, at least the Vikings got off to a fast start to the season.

That’s the only positive that came out of last week’s season-opening Sunday Sweats column, which was an absolute bloodbath to Talking Points’ bottom line. It was the worst performance in the three-year history of the betting column, as I went 0-6 to lose more than $1,200.

Minnesota took a step in the right direction of cashing my ticket on them to win the NFC North at +250 (i.e. risking $100 to win $250) by beating Green Bay 23-7 but everything else went terribly wrong. That’s not the way I wanted to start the year, but also not something that’s going to deter me going forward.

Sunday Sweats has been profitable in each of the last two years, and I fully believe it will finish there again this season. It’s just going to be a little bit more difficult now.

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (0-1, -$220): Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams over 46 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

This number is as high as 47 elsewhere, and there’s a case to be made that it belongs as high as 49. Atlanta doesn’t have the defensive pieces to disrupt the Rams like Buffalo did on opening night, especially up front, but does have what looks like a capable offense through one week. Even if the Rams get out to a big lead — a distinct possibility — Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota will keep firing with what looks like an underrated receiving corps that includes tight end Kyle Pitts, rookie receiver Drake London and running back Cordarrelle Patterson.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (0-1, -$150): New Orleans Saints +8.5 & Carolina Panthers +8 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$300 to win $250

The Buccaneers at Saints game could turn into a slugfest, especially with the former dealing with a large slate of offensive line penalties. I’m expecting a low final score, one that makes it difficult for either team to win by more than a touchdown. It’s a similar story for Panthers at Giants, though Carolina might be even better value than New Orleans. There’s little to suggest the Giants are better than the Panthers — despite starting the season 1-0 — and it’s therefore debatable if they should be favored in the first place. Like the Saints, the Panthers have a great shot to win outright and moving their point spread through the 3 and 7 creates great value.

Moneyline Parlay (0-1, -$213): Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers & Philadelphia Eagles +162 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $324

There are four double-digit favorites on the Week 3 card, and the Broncos and Packers — playing the Texans and Bears, respectively — look like the safest choices. Despite both teams losing in Week 1, Denver and Green Bay hold major talent advantages over Houston and Chicago, respectively. Circa conveniently has some of the lowest moneyline prices on both — -450 (i.e. risking $450 to win $100) on the Broncos and -460 on the Packers. The tighter call here is on the Eagles, which are only -131 (again, one of the best prices in the market) at Circa on Monday Night Football against the Vikings. That number should close higher, though. Philadelphia has the better overall roster, making it an easy choice to finish off this three-teamer.

Player Prop (0-2, -$460): Treylon Burks over 28.5 receiving yards (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

It’s only a matter of time until the first-round pick out of Arkansas breaks out. He didn’t do much in Week 1 but still had three catches for 55 yards. The game against the Bills could deceptively be just as favorable of a matchup as the Giants presented considering Buffalo is dealing with secondary injuries. Tennessee has built a lot of its offense around Burks’ gamebreaking strengths, meaning it won’t be long that this low of a price is available to back the potential Rookie of the Year candidate.

Future Finding (0-0, $0): Dalvin Cook most rushing yards in Sunday-Monday games at 18-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$50 to win $900

I guess this is a hedge of sorts to all my pre-existing positions on the Eagles Monday night. If I’m wrong and the Vikings are the better team and build a lead, they’re going to lean a lot on Cook down the stretch. But that’s not why I’m playing this. They could lean on Cook a lot anyway, even though the Vikings’ passing game is all the rage right now. The Eagles’ rush defense isn’t anything great, and Cook is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He arguably shouldn’t be this much of a longshot in any matchup, let alone one that looks beneficial like this.

Non-football Play (0-1, -$240): Gregory Rodrigues +115 vs. Chidi Njokuani at UFC Fight Night (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $230

Njokuani is the more electric fighter in Saturday night’s co-main event at the UFC’s local Apex facility, but Rodrigues is more well-rounded and proven against a higher level of competition. A pick’em price might make sense, but the more the line starts to move away from that, the more value appears on “RoboCop.” I typically like to include a bet for Sunday in this section, but with baseball lines to slow to post late in the season and not a lot else going on, the options were limited. Let’s instead try to the boost a bankroll in the octagon tonight and go into Sunday’s NFL slate with some momentum.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 0-6, -$1,283

Weekend wagers year to date: 68-84-1, $3,665.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 410-414, $9,601.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or