Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 14 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022 | 12:45 p.m.

My first rule of betting Thursday Night Football is to initially consider backing the team with the better coach, especially if that coach is up against a first-year opponent on the other sidelines.

I violated that philosophy to start Week 14 and paid the consequences. I used the Raiders -6 as a play against the Rams in the pick’em but Las Vegas coach Josh McDaniels’ ultra-conservative game plan backfired and contributed the team’s eventual 17-16 collapse.

It should have been no surprise that reigning Super Bowl-winning coach Sean McVay would have a better command of his team, albeit a severely beaten-up one, on a short week. At least there was a consolation prize of a victory for the Sunday Sweats bottom line when Josh Jacobs went under 118.5 rushing and receiving yards by four yards to cash the weekly prop in the Raiders’ gameday section.

That was a needed $200 score after several future bets, ranging from the World Cup to College Football Playoff inclusion, settled as losers to bring down the column’s bottom line. The Jacobs’ win can hopefully catapult Sunday Sweats to a successful Week 14.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.

Tasty Total (8-7, $110): Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos over 43 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

The Broncos’ defense is going to break one of these days. It has to break. Why wouldn’t it start here against the best offense in the NFL? A real compelling reason is necessary to ever price a total this low in a Kansas City game, and there’s simply not one today. The weather is forecasted to be beautiful at Empower Field at Mile High, and the Chiefs have a mostly clean injury report. The Broncos’ defense is the only complicating factor as its consistency has been a big reason that 11 of the team’s 12 games have gone under this year. But that can’t last forever. This number is a couple points short.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (8-6, $290): Minnesota Vikings +8, Philadelphia Eagles -1 & Baltimore Ravens +8 at +160 (Caesars/William Hill)

$150 to win $240

I’m going for a second consecutive cash on a three-team teaser partly because I couldn’t figure out which of these standard through-the-3-and-6 sides to eliminate for a two-teamer. I’m not sure any of these sides cover the regular number — in fact I picked against the Vikings versus the Lions and the Ravens against the Steelers in the pick’em — but all the games should be close. There should be value in using a teaser to pull each side through key numbers.

Moneyline Parlay (4-9, -$435.50): Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars +1983 (Circa Sports)

$60 to win $1,189.78

This is a real shoot-for-the-stars combination, but let’s gamble. I think the moneyline price on each of these three underdogs is a little long especially at Circa, which has +200 on Cleveland traveling to Cincinnati, +164 on Tampa Bay at San Francisco and +163 on Jacksonville at Tennessee. Why not string them together and hope for the best? It’s highly unlikely this cashes, of course, but not as unlikely as the near 20-to-1 payout implies.

Player Prop (14-13, $54): Gerald Everett anytime touchdown +320 (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $320

Miami’s pass defense is a sieve, and their biggest weakness is in covering tight ends. It just so happens that Los Angeles has a tight end that can take advantage in Everett. He’s priced as such a long shot to score because he only has two touchdowns on the year but that seems like an anomaly more than anything. Everett should get more chances as the season progresses. He should have some chances here in what looks like a Sunday Night Football shootout. Taking over 53 in Dolphins at Chargers was a consideration in the total section but instead I’ll just indirectly utilize that handicap for more scoring in this section.

Future Finding (3-9, $610): Nick Chubb to win NFL rushing title at 5-to-1 and Derrick Henry to win NFL rushing title at 6-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $1,200 on Chubb and $200 to win $1,200 on Henry

Josh Jacobs has more than a 300-yard lead on Henry and just less than a 300-yard lead on Chubb after Thursday Night Football but I still see him as a vulnerable favorite. Jacobs, currently priced at -150, has a monstrous slate of run defenses coming up in the Patriots, Steelers and 49ers. And that’s if he even plays. Jacobs is dealing with as many as four injuries, and with the Raiders’ playoff hopes all but extinguished, he could sit out to heal up. Of course, that’s a concern with Chubb as well but the 5-to-1 price makes it a risk worth taking. Henry seems least likely to miss time and he’s also got the weakest slate of defenses ahead. Chubb and Henry might both catch up to Jacobs, but at least one of them has a great chance to do so.

Non-football Play (9-6, $680): Boston Bruins -125 at Vegas Golden Knights (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

Yes, Vegas just beat Boston shorthanded on the road last week but that doesn’t hold much predictive value going into Sunday’s rematch. The Bruins far outplayed the Golden Knights in that game, but goalie Logan Thompson had a great night including in a shootout where he turned away all of the home team’s shots. Vegas meanwhile was able to get one past Jeremy Swayman, who’s the lesser of the two Boston goalies. Swayman also played in Boston’s last game, at Arizona, meaning that Linus Ullmark should be in net Sunday at T-Mobile Arena. That’s not good news for Vegas as Ullmark has been one of the best goalies in the NHL this season. Gobble up this opening number on Boston because it’s sure to rise.

Non-football Play (9-6, $680): Argentina -126 vs. Croatia in 90 Minutes + Stoppage Time (Circa Sports)

$126 to win $100

I’ve soured on the World Cup after a downturn, but I vowed to include the tournament here as long as it was going on so let’s sign off with one more non-football play. Argentina should do what archrival Brazil couldn’t and put away feisty Croatia. The Argentines' expected goal differential in the World Cup is about five times better than the Croatians' according to Football Reference, helping illustrate the discrepancy between these two teams. Look for this line to close higher, which makes it wise to bet right now.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 46-51, $1,308.50

Weekend betting column year to date: 116-132-1, $5,202.08

Weekend betting column all-time: 458-463-5, $12,047.81

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Olivier Giroud to win World Cup Golden Boot at 80-to-1 ($20 to win $1,600)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or