Sunday Sweats: Several wagers to add to your NFL Week 9 betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022 | 8 a.m.

We briefly interrupt the regularly scheduled football programming for a quick foray into fútbol.

I’m not going pretend that I kept up with handicapping the MLS all year, but I worked on it going into the season and apparently either made the right choices or got lucky — more likely, some combination of both. I made two bets on teams to win the MLS Cup — LAFC at 14-to-1 and the Philadelphia Union at 16-to-1.    

Those two teams meet for the championship at 1 p.m. today on Fox. You’ll regrettably just have to take my word on my bet on the former because I never wrote about it — the price was down 10-to-1 before I had a chance so I passed. I only placed a $125 wager to win $2,000 on Philadelphia in this space.

That means I need to hedge as far as the column is concerned to lock in a profit, and I’m not going to hesitate. As a bonus play this week, give me $1,200 to win $500 on LAFC to lift the trophy over Philadelphia at -240 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

That guarantees a minimum $375 profit, and as high as a $800 score, and that’s nothing to scoff at with as poorly as things have been going since restarting Sunday Sweats for football season.

But that’s enough. As promised, let’s get back to our primary sport.

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (5-4, $120): Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 42.5 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

The total in this same matchup 10 months ago at the same location, Raymond James Stadium, was 48 and it flew over in a 30-27 Rams’ NFC divisional-round victory. Yes, I know both teams are down big-time since then but they’re notably down on both sides of the ball. Their defenses are playing better than their offenses, but neither the Tampa Bay nor Los Angeles stop unit is near the top of the league. Both teams are in the league’s bottom 10 in red zone efficiency, a statistic that should see some positive regression eventually and help the offenses put up a few more points. Maybe that starts here.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (4-4, -$190): Cincinnati Bengals -0.5 & New Orleans Saints +8.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$360 to win $300

The under 48 on the Monday Night Football game between the Saints and Baltimore Ravens was a runner-up for the above category, and boosting the Saints up beyond a touchdown is a way to take advantage of the same handicap. Points should be at more of a premium than the betting market is indicating in the game  and it’s going to be difficult for either team to win by more than a touchdown. The other side might be an even better 6-point teaser leg. Carolina has played well while also covering two weeks in a row to throw their value in the betting market out of whack. They’re going to run into major problems against a much more talented Cincinnati side.

Moneyline Parlay (2-6, -$594): Minnesota Vikings & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Caesars/William Hill)

$150 to win $247.50

I often want to get rid of this category anyway, but it’s especially true on a week like this where nothing stands out. These might be two favorite currently available moneylines, however, so why not throw them together and hope for the best? Too many people are aboard the Washington Commanders’ hype train despite them not looking all that great in three straight wins. The Vikings may not cover the 3.5, but I’m more confident they win outright at -170. The Buccaneers may just cover 3.5 against the Rams, even though they’re only currently a 2.5-point favorites, so a market-low -150 price at Caesars is worth taking.

Player Prop (6-9, -$502): Romeo Doubs over 47.5 receiving yards -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

This is more of a feel play, which I typically try to avoid. There’s nothing the Packers’ rookie receiver out of UNR has done on the season statistically to indicate this a bad line. But it sure looked like he started to figure it out in last week’s loss to the Bills, didn’t it? There were several flashes of the ability that made the fourth-round pick a popular sleeper coming out of training camp as he caught four passes for 62 yards and a touchdown. Doubs’ baseline might be higher going forward.  

Player Prop (6-9, -$502): JuJu Smith-Schuster under 4.5 receptions +125 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $250

I’ll throw in an extra receiving prop for the second straight week. It went well a week ago, and why not make sure to cover another primetime game in Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans? Smith-Schuster has been the Chiefs’ top receiver in the past two games but, before that, stock was down on him, as he had only three catches for 33 yards in a Week 5 win over the Raiders. There’s no standout weapon in the Kansas City offense beyond tight end Travis Kelce but there’s suddenly a lot of competition. The Chiefs traded for former Giants first-round pick Kadarius Toney this week to make that even truer. It’s going to be difficult for any of their receivers to catch this many passes in a game where the Titans will slow the pace.

Future Finding (0-2, -$100): Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs -135 (Circa Sports)

$270 to win $200

Don’t laugh but now seems like the time to buy on the struggling Buccaneers. They’ve played the seventh-toughest schedule so far, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, but their future slate ranks only 24^th in the league. Despite sitting at 3-5, they’re only one game out of the NFC South lead with a victory over the first-place Atlanta Falcons. That might make Tampa Bay Even money to win the division — imagine that price coming into the season — a better bet but I’ve already got the Saints in that market and remain relatively bullish on them. This at least leaves open the possibility of cashing both though I’m aware the chances are extremely thin.

Non-football Play (3-5, -$320): Taiba -105 head-to-head in Breeders Cup vs. Life Is Good (Circa Sports)

$105 to win $100

What’s a betting column without mentioning arguably the biggest betting event of the weekend — Saturday’s Breeders Cup? I won’t purport to be an expert, but I also don’t mind digging into the handful of matchups Circa posted for one of the biggest races of the year. Life Is Good is garnering a lot of buzz because of the way he’s dominated nine of 11 career races, but Taiba has just as much pure speed. Early in his career, Taiba looked like a potentially generational horse. He failed to tap into that potential in the biggest race of his life, this year’s Kentucky Derby, but perhaps he can rediscover the form in today’s second-biggest race of his life.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 21-30, -$1,796

Weekend betting column year to date: 89-109-1, $3,032.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 431-439-5, $8,978.23

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 ($200 to win $900); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or