Wild-card weekend sweats: Eight wagers to add to your betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 | 11:50 a.m.

Futures came to the rescue in the final regular season edition of Sunday Sweats.

I got crushed with the bets in the column as well as some proposition adds in the College Football Playoff national championship, but that was all outweighed by the grading of a handful of season-long plays. Between divisional futures, win totals and playoff bets, I went 6-4 in the column for a cool profit of $1,580.

The Vikings winning the NFC North and the Jaguars coming back to take the AFC South were the biggest earners at $750 and $900, respectively. I’m sitting on a few more promising futures in the column — namely Patrick Mahomes to win MVP, Nick Bosa to win Defensive Player of the Year and the Eagles to win the NFC — but for now, the focus will be to keep building profit round by round.

Take away the futures and I lost $964 in the column last week. That’s obviously not good enough, and there’s motivation in avoiding a similar performance during any point of the playoffs.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats with seven bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.

Tasty Total (9-11, -$405): Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers under 42 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

This number admittedly looks slightly low based on full-season data, but the matchup may play out differently today — especially considering the weather. It’s not a postcard-perfect day in Santa Clara, Calif., as the winds are swirling and the rain is falling. Both teams should at least start cautiously, not wanting to make any mistakes and put themselves in a bad position. The last three 49ers’ games have gone over but they were an under team for most of the year. In each of the two previous matchups in this series, the NFC West divisional rivals put up a total of 34 points.  

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (9-9, $30): Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 & Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Well, this is a new situation: I’ve actually bet against both of these sides on the point spread but still think there’s value in pushing them through the three and the six for a teaser. At the very least, there’s no better teaser option. Tampa Bay +2.5 might look like a more traditional leg on the surface, but the number looks short to me and I wouldn’t want any exposure against Dallas. Chargers at Jaguars should be a great game, and while the former should win, it’s unlikely to come by more than a touchdown. The Ravens meanwhile surely saved some wrinkles and will stay competitive against the Bengals, but with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback, it’s difficult to imagine them having a real chance at the outright win.

Moneyline Parlay (7-10, $381.89): Kansas over Iowa State, Umar Nurmagomedov over Raoni Barcelos at UFC Fight Night, Tampa Bay Lightning over St. Louis Blues and Buffalo Bills over Miami Dolphins at +149 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $297.68

It’s big, chalky and ugly, but there are so many sports going on today, so why not take advantage of that and gamble a little? That’s what this category is all about anyway. Circa, as usual, has diminished moneyline prices to cut down on the implied hold percentage on wagers like these. These might be famous last words but I’d be borderline shocked if any side if this parlay lost outright other than the Lightning traveling to the Blues. St. Louis has surprisingly played well since losing what feels like all of its best players to injured reserve but that’s going to stop at some point. Tampa Bay is better than the -185 moneyline price on paper, the same as the rest of these big favorites.

Player Prop (17-22, -$866): Brock Purdy under 1.5 touchdown passes at Even money (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $200

This category needs some work following the carnage of last week, so let’s fire on a prop in each of the two games today. The first bet is correlated to the aforementioned total as, if the 49ers aren’t going to score as many points as expected, that means its quarterback isn’t going to find the end zone that often. The Seahawks’ defense is poor but they’ve been better in the defensive backfield and have already seen Purdy once this year. If the game script I’m projecting plays out, the under should actually be a slight favorite — not a pick’em — here.

Player Prop (17-22, -$866): Zay Jones over 44.5 receiving yards at -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

The former Raider is a team leader for the Jaguars and one of quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s most trusted receiving options. More importantly here, he’s also in a terrific matchup. The Chargers’ pass defense has been worst at defending slot receivers, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, and that’s typically where Jones lines up. After a huge stretch at the end of November into the start of December, Jones has slowed down with less than 25 receiving yards in three straight games. But that’s depressing this total, especially at the SuperBook. Jones’ over/under receiving yards is as high as 50.5 elsewhere, and the true number probably belongs somewhere in the middle.

Futures Finding (9-14, $2,170): Dak Prescott to lead the NFL playoffs in passing yards at 21-to-1 (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $2,100

The Cowboys could be set up for a surprise deep run in the playoffs. They’re as well-rounded as any team in the NFC and don’t project as more than a 4.5-point underdog in any matchup. Finding a team in the wild-card round that could stick around for a while is the formula for success in this market. Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow are the obvious choices, but that’s why they’re at prices of 5-to-2 and 5-to-1, respectively. Purdy could also fit the bill, but the 49ers throw neither frequently enough nor deep enough for him to rack up the necessary volume. Prescott is the clear third choice among quarterbacks playing this weekend  — and arguably second since Allen and Burrow will likely have to face each other next week — to make this number way too high.

Futures Finding (9-14, $2,170): Tom Brady to lead the NFL wild-card weekend in passing yards at +650 (Boyd Sports)

$160 to win $1,040

As implied elsewhere in the column, I expect Tampa Bay to be playing from behind against Dallas on Monday Night Football. Playing from behind means offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will have to stray from his preferred gameplan of wasting plays slamming Leonard Fournette into the line for minimal to no gains. Brady will be throwing. He’ll be throwing so much that there’s a case to be made that he should be the favorite in this market, or at least a co-favorite with the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, who’s at +310. Herbert might be tough to beat, but at this high of a payout. It’s worth taking a shot.

Non-football Play (13-8, $1,070): Nassourdine Imavov -124 vs. Sean Strickland at UFC Fight Night (Boyd Sports)

$248 to win $200

The first UFC card of the year commences tonight at the local Apex facility, and it wouldn’t feel right if the column didn’t get some action on the main event. Strickland, who lost to Jared Cannonier via split decision in the final main event of 2022, took this fight on short notice and therefore shouldn’t be as prepared for a five-round battle as the younger Imavov. The 27-year-old Imavov might be peaking with three straight wins in the octagon. He was initially set up with any easier matchup, Kelvin Gastelum, but should be able to get past Strickland all the same. Strickland might be bigger, but Imavov is quicker and smart enough not to get drawn into his opponent’s preference for a grinding-style of fight. This line is as high as -135 elsewhere, which might be too high of a premium to pay, so lock the lower prices up before they climb tonight.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 64-74, $2,380.89

Weekend betting column year to date: 134-156-1, $6,174.47

Weekend betting column all-time: 476-487-5, $13,020.20 

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200);Micah Parsons to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at -110 ($275 to win $250); Luka Doncic to win NBA MVP at 4-to-1 ($450 to win $1,800); Boston Celtics to win Atlantic Division at -220 ($660 to win $300)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or